ON his first visit to Srinagar after he was re-elected prime minister, Narendra Modi declared that elections in occupied Jammu and Kashmir would soon be held. He also indicated that its statehood would be restored.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission of India announced that updated electoral rolls for J&K would be published on Aug 20. To understand the significance of this development and what the BJP government’s motives and intentions are, it is necessary to rewind and recall what happened five years ago and thereafter.

Ever since India illegally annexed J&K in 2019 by abrogating Article 370 of its constitution, which gave the state special status, it has tried to convey the impression that the situation there was normalising. Aug 5, 2019, had, in fact, opened a new chapter in the tortured history of the occupied territory.

The bifurcation of the state and its absorption in the Indian union was in brazen violation of UN Security Council resolutions and was condemned throughout the state. A prolonged lockdown and communication blackout followed, the military siege tightened, public assembly was banned, the press silenced and Kashmiri leaders jailed, including pro-Delhi politicians, to prevent a popular upsurge against the move, which robbed the Kashmiri people of virtually all their rights.

The Modi government’s claim that, over time, normalcy and stability had returned to Kashmir, was belied by continuing repression and human right violations, curbs on political activities, crackdown on the media, jailing of journalists, and induction of additional troops into what was already the world’s most militarised region. Leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) continued to languish in jail or house detention.

Modi’s earlier efforts to hold legislative elections by enticing pro-Indian political leaders to participate came to naught. In June 2021, he invited these leaders to a round table conference on Kashmir. The aim was to consolidate the 2019 action by persuading select politicians to rejoin a revived political process and create a facade of ‘normality’. But even handpicked Kashmiri leaders rejected the government’s controversial delimitation move and, instead, demanded restoration of J&K’s statehood. The meeting ended in failure.

People of occupied Kashmir will always find a way to say no to India.

In May 2022, India’s Delimitation Commission carved out new electoral constituencies in J&K that aimed to disempower the Muslim population. The delimitation plan handed Jammu six more seats in the 90-member J&K Assembly, while Kashmir was given only one more. Under this plan, Jammu’s representation went to 43 seats, leaving Kashmir with 47. This, despite the fact that, according to the 2011 census, the Kashmir Valley’s population was seven million, while Jammu’s was 5.3m. Delhi’s move to recast the electoral map was rejected across Kashmir. APHC leaders denounced it while pro-Delhi Kashmiri politicians called the plan unacceptable as it sought to alter Kashmir’s demography and aimed to turn the Muslim majority into a minority.

The post-2019 period saw almost every aspect of life for Muslims in occupied J&K come under assault by the BJP government. A series of steps — administrative, demographic, electoral — were taken to disempower and disenfranchise Kashmiris and alter the Muslim identity of Kashmir.

Several actions mimicked Israeli settler policies in occupied Palestine. Demographic changes involved new domicile rules, with millions of so-called domicile certificates issued to non-Kashmiri outsiders, who became eligible after abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A of the constitution. Voting rights were also given to non-residents. Properties were confiscated and newland laws introduced to enable land to be seized from locals and transferred to outsiders.

In 2022, BJP authorities seized the J&K Waqf Board and all its properties across the region. This marked a drive to take control of all prominent places of religious significance for Muslims in the occupied territory, including shrines. Religious leaders and Islamic scholars were arrested and prayers barred in many mosques across Kashmir. These and other measures sought tosystematically erode Kashmiri religious identity and culture.

The announcement about polls in J&K comes against this grim backdrop of Delhi’s use of force and fraud to marginalise Kashmiri Muslims and set the stage for assembly elections, designed to ‘endorse’ and legitimise its 2019 action. The government is legally obliged to hold polls by Sept 30, 2024, by the supreme court verdict of December 2023, which upheld the abrogation of Article 370 as ‘constitutional’. The last assembly elections were held in 2014.

Apart from having to comply with the supreme court order, the Modi government has read the higher turnout in the Lok Sabha elections in J&K as a return to normalcy. Turnout in the three Lok Sabha constituencies in Kashmir certainly went up compared to the past, although in Srinagar, two-thirds of voters didn’t cast their ballot. Still, the higher turnout was disingenuously cast by BJP leaders as ‘vindication’ of the abrogation of Article 370.

This was contrary to reality, which was so strongly evidenced by the election of Abdul Rasheed Sheikh from Baramulla. A fierce opponent of abrogation, he won from jail, being incarcerated on terrorism charges, defeating former chief minister Omar Abdullah. His campaign was run on the slogan “Jail ka badla vote se leinge” (Voting will avenge the jailing). The support he drew across the board, especially from youth, reflected the depth of Kashmiri anger with Delhi in what was widely seen in the Valley as a vote against India.

There are some indications that many Kashmiris may want to use the vote in the assembly elections to convey their discontent and rejection of Delhi’s policies. This could be a departure from the past, when they boycotted polls as a sham process under occupation. With other avenues to voice their demands closed, the vote may become a vehicle of protest against Delhi.

Although it is too early to say how this will play out, for now many Kashmiri residents are quoted in news reports as saying that voting, far from endorsing India or its policies, would be a way to register their dissent and resistance. The question, then, is if Delhi sees an electoral upsurge of resistance, would it still hold assembly elections?

What is beyond doubt is that the people of occupied Kashmir will reject any regime foisted on them and continue, one way or another, to express their aspiration for freedom from Indian occupation.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2024