WITH the rise in temperatures globally, the region of South Asia has witnessed hydro-politics at an unprecedented level in the last few years. While a robust framework was put in place by the World Bank in 1960 between India and Pakistan, called the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the eastern neighbour continues to violate the provisions of the treaty.

As per the provisions of the treaty, the IWT allocated Pakistan control over three western rivers, namely the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. On the other hand, India got control over Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers. However, New Delhi has clearly violated the terms of the treaty by constructing hydroelectric projects on the rivers allocated to Pakistan.

Time and again, Pakistan has raised concerns over the diversion of water by such projects on a bilateral level, and has referred the matter to the Permanent Indus Commission. The World Bank has also urged India to stop blocking and diverting the flow of rivers given to Pakistan, but India has been ignoring all such recommendations with impunity.

If India continues to construct dams and divert river inflows to Pakistan, there will be dire consequences. It will, undeniably, decrease the average flow of river water to Pakistan. The very decrease in river flow will bring agricultural productivity to a grinding halt, putting 40 per cent of employed locals in the agricultural sector at risk. Likewise, centre-province and province-province relations will deteriorate, thereby seriously endangering national integration. Food insecurity is another cause for concern due to the decrease in river flows. In such a perilous situation, Pakistan will have no other choice, but to wage war, though on a small scale, to counter India’s actions.

Pakistan must pursue aggressive water diplomacy to counter India’s actions. It must leverage multilateral bodies, like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), to resolve the matter amicably. Voicing concerns in the United Nations may also bear results. Besides, Pakistan must improve its water governance to preserve water resources. This includes pursuing drip irrigation in agriculture sector, and building dams in regions that receive maximum rainfall.

Junaid Ahmed Burdi
Hyderabad

Published in Dawn, July 11th, 2024