ISLAMABAD: Speakers at a seminar on Thursday warned that South Asia’s nuclear arms control regime is at risk as the era of nuclear vertical proliferation returns.

They were speaking at the launch of a book, “Nuclear Arms Control in South Asia Politics, Postures & Practices” authored by Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI).

Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee chairman retired Gen Zubair Mahmood Hayat said the book focuses on arms control in South Asia rather than the world. He said the book’s sections ere intellectually rich and had excellent material.

However, he said his primary attention was on chapters dealing with India and Pakistan doctrines and postures as well as their responses to nuclear control in non-proliferation. “I thought both of these chapters were intriguing and well-researched,” he remarked.

He cited Amit Shah, who labelled Kashmir as a distortion of history, and added that it was an existential concern in Pakistan. Mr Hayat emphasised that nuclear deterrence is a critical component of Pakistan’s security strategy since Kashmir is an existential issue and Hindutva ideology is putting a shadow over nuclear arms control in South Asia.

He said India and Pakistan’s arms control and non-proliferation may be seen in five domains and contexts. He highlighted the domains from ideological to strategic, that were casting a shadow on South Asian arms control.

He also emphasised India’s behaviour, which may be unusual in Western capitals. “We have seen evidence that India is involved in transnational killings,” the general said. He said India had killed 22 Pakistanis on Pakistani soil through state operators and had also been linked to killings in other countries. He also stated that India’s ‘rogue behaviour’ was a deterrent to South Asian arms control.

India has exploited arms control for five reasons: obtaining time, political posturing, political rhetoric and looking good strategy, he added.

Dr Jaspal said nuclear arms control regime was in jeopardy as the era of nuclear vertical proliferation was back.The book has three sections which deals with politics, postures and practices

The book spelled out India and Pakistan’s nuclear postures and their rhetorical and practical approach toward nuclear arms control, nonproliferation regime and nuclear assets’ safety and security. It addresses how the leaders in India and Pakistan think about nuclear weapons and how they will ensure that devastating firearms are used when, but only when they decide they should be used.

The book also discusses how India and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals may destroy South Asia if conflict escalated.

Decommissioning nuclear weapons requires changing nonproliferation and nuclear deterrence strategies. Nuclear disarmament is unachievable without changing the notion that nuclear weapons are reliable defensive weapons. Nuclear disarmament is impractical in South Asia, making weapons control the sole viable option for strategic stability in a complicated regional environment. Nuclear arms control, the goal for strategic security in South Asia, remains difficult.

Tahir Hussain Andrabi, additional sectary Foreign Office, Air Commodore Khalid Banuri, Adviser Jinnah Centre for Character and Leadership, and Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema also spoke.

Published in Dawn, July 12th, 2024