THE Russia-Ukraine conflict traces its origins back to the Soviet era when certain districts in eastern and south-eastern Ukraine, most notably Crimea in 1954, were transferred from Russia to Ukraine. At the time nobody could have foreseen the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

When Mikhail Gorbachev assumed power in 1985, he adopted policies of Glasnost and Perestroika that were meant to rejuvenate the Soviet Union. Instead, they inadvertently reshaped the European and global order, undermining Russian interests. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent reunification of Germany signalled the end of the Russian-dominated Warsaw Pact.

Remarkably, it was Russia’s president, Boris Yeltsin, who clandestinely orchestrated the Soviet Union’s coup de grâce in 1991, in concert with the presidents of Ukraine and Belarus. Mikhail Gorbachev accused this troika of “turning the world upside down”, but he too must share responsibility for the debacle. Consequently, the internal boundaries of the semi-independent Soviet republics became official international borders, without the exercise of due diligence. The Soviet Union’s breakup set the stage for future conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia and Georgia, and Russia and Ukraine.

After the Soviet Union’s dissolution, the West extended Nato eastward, expanding it from 16 members in 1999 to 32. President Vladimir Putin regarded Nato’s expansion and Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan nationalist movement, which toppled the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, as a strategic threat.

A military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is unfeasible.

In April 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatists in eastern Donbas, igniting a low-intensity conflict. A full-scale war erupted in February 2022 when Russia launched an extensive invasion of Ukraine. Since 2014, the toll has been staggering: hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed or wounded, over 40,000 Ukrainian civilians dead or injured, and millions displaced or driven to seek refuge abroad.

Russia currently controls over one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. A hiatus in American aid enabled Russia to advance and further erode Ukraine’s military capabilities and infrastructure. In April 2024, the US approved a $61 billion aid package and signed a 10-year security pact, while European nations established a $54bn ‘Ukraine Facility’. Despite these efforts, Ukraine faces relentless pressure on the battlefield and a barrage of punishing Russian drone and missile strikes. Additionally, it lacks the military strength to recover its lost territories.

President Putin’s recent ceasefire proposal demanded that Ukraine withdraw entirely from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, officially abandon its Nato aspirations, and that Western sanctions be lifted. In June 2024, Putin visited North Korea and Vietnam, and in exchange for North Korean support, appears to have abandoned Russia’s previous opposition to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

A Nato summit meeting held in Washington, D.C. on July 9-11, 2024, apart from accusing China of supporting Russia’s war effort, has pledged support for “an irreversible path” to future Nato membership for Ukraine as well as additional assistance totalling $43.3bn. The possibility of escalation between Nato and Russia, each wielding thousands of nuclear weapons, highlights the urgency of finding a just solution.

A solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict requires both sides to acknowledge that a military solution is neither feasible nor de­­sirable. The Russian demand that Ukraine forgo Nato membership will have to accepted, otherwise there would be zero hope of securing Russian withdrawal from Ukrain-ian territories, particularly Crimea, which holds substantial strategic and historical significance

for Russia.

Recognition by the two sides that the exercise of sovereignty is often symbolic may help them understand that their decade-long conflict is not about annexing territory or collecting tribute like mediaeval monarchs.

The sovereignty issue could be addressed through a formula for shared governance/ sovereignty and dual citizenship in certain disputed areas transferred to Ukraine during the Soviet era. This approach would honour the historical and cultural ties between the two nations, while maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Ukraine cannot afford to become a hostile outpost bordering Russia’s heartland, while Russia must regain Ukraine’s trust by respecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and aiding generously in the reconstruction of its war-torn infrastructure. Pakistan, maintaining neutrality, would support a win-win solution that protects the vital interests of both nations.

The writer is a retired ambassador. The views expressed above are his own.

Published in Dawn, July 12th, 2024