LAHORE: A web app created by a professor at the University of Maryland in the US predicts the future climate of the cities as it would be about six decades later and it does not paint a good picture. It would not be rather far-fetched if the future scenario is termed apocalyptic. The app shows the expected climate conditions of more than 40,000 cities across the world, including many cities of Pakistan too.

Pakistan’s own Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination has already warned that many regions in the country would become uninhabitable soon due to harsh weather conditions.

The app, https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/ draws parallel by giving the future climate of a city through the example of another city having the weather conditions right now that any specific city will have in about six decades.

The app, developed by Matthew Fitzpatrick, an ecologist at the University of Maryland, has used the data of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the UN whose job is to advance scientific knowledge of climate change caused by human activities. It matches 40,581 places around the globe to nearby locations currently experiencing their future predicted climate in 2080.

App shows climate change may turn many cities in Pakistan unlivable

The climate conditions in various cities of Pakistan, according to the app, would be on average 5 to 6 degree Celsius warmer in summers which is quite horrible but if the government takes steps to reduce emissions, the same change comes down to 1 to 2 degree Celsius. However that depends on the steps our state and society take which right now appears to be a far-fetched dream. The app also shows the predicted climate of a city in case the greenhouse gasses emissions are controlled and in that case there is a visible difference.

According to the app, for higher emissions, summers in Lahore are expected to be 4.7 degree Celsius warmer by 2080 and 21.2pc wetter. Winters are expected to be 5.2 degree Celsius warmer and 16.1pc wetter than what Lahore’s weather is right now. Climate conditions most similar to Lahore in 2080 can be seen right now in Khairpur, Sindh, which means that Lahore would be as hot as Khairpur is right now.

But if we reduced emissions, Lahore’s weather would be warmer by only 1.5 degree Celsius in 2080 and 19.2pc wetter while winters are expected to be 1.6 degree Celsius warmer and 12pc wetter. And its conditions about 60 years later can now be found in Dajal in South Punjab right now instead of Khairpur.

In Faisalabad, summers are expected to be 5.6 degree Celsius warmer and 22.1pc wetter in 2080 while winters are expected to be 5.6 degree Celsius warmer and 15pc wetter. Climate conditions most similar to Faisalabad in 2080 can be found today in Chowki Jamali, Balochistan.

In case of reduced emissions, Faisalabad’s weather would be 1.7 degree Celsius warmer and 26.9pc wetter while winters would be 1.8 degree Celsius warmer and 9.3pc wetter. It’s twin place would also change from Balochistan to Dajal in Punjab.

For higher emissions, summers in Multan are expected to be 5.2 degree Celsius warmer and 5.2pc drier. Winters are expected to be 5.7 degree Celsius warmer and 8.2pc wetter. Climate conditions most similar to Multan in 2080 can right now be found in Chowki Jamali, Balochistan.

In case of reduced emissions, Multan’s climate would 1.8 degree Celsius warmer and 11.9pc drier while winters are expected to be 1.9 degree Celsius warmer and 9.2pc wetter. In that case, its twin city would be Sohbatpur in Balochistan instead of Chowki Jamali.

The weather in Rawalpindi/Islamabad is likely to be 5.1 degree Celsius warmer and 4pc drier in summers while in winters it would be 5.4pc warmer and 11.3pc wetter. Weather conditions in Rawalpindi of 2080 can now be found in Mirpur, Azad Kashmir.

In case of reduced emissions, the climate of Islamabad/Rawalpindi would be warmer by 1.6 degree Celsius and 10.5pc drier while winters are expected to be 1.7 degree Celsius warmer and 10.6pc wetter.

Summers in Karachi are expected to be 3.3 degree Celsius warmer and whopping 18.2pc drier in the next 60 years. Winters are expected to be 5 degree warmer and 0.4pc wetter. It weather is likely to be like that of present-day Al Bahah in Saudi Arabia.

But if we reduce emissions, Karachi’s climate is expected to be 1.1 degree Celsius warmer and 17.3pc wetter while winters are expected to be 1.7 degree warmer and 2.9pc wetter. The best climate analogue shows that conditions most similar to Karachi can today be found in Mukalla, Yemen.

Peshawar is expected to be 5.8 degree Celsius warmer and 4.5pc drier in summers while in winters it would be 5.5 degree warmer and 9.2pc wetter by 2080. Its conditions would be similar to that of Sibbi of the current times.

In case of reduced emissions, summers in Peshawar are expected to be 1.8 degree Celsius warmer and 2.3pc wetter while winters are expected to be 1.7 degree warmer and 7.7pc wetter. Its twin city in 2080 would change to Harnoli of today instead of Sibbi.

Summers in Quetta are expected to be 5.5 degree Celsius warmer and 10.3pc wetter while the winters are expected to be 5.5 degree warmer and 2.1pc drier. The conditions that are expected to be in Quetta can be found in Jalalabad of Afghanistan today.

A report, National Adaptation Plan 2023, by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination published last year says many regions in the country would become uninhabitable soon. “Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be higher than the global average. Temperature increases of 1.4°–3.7°C are projected by the 2060s and increases of 6.0°C by the 2090s (gure 2.2.1), with projected increases higher during winter and in the north. The frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to rise significantly, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a warning that the frequency and severity of extreme heatwaves are expected to rise in the region due to climate change,” it says.

In an interview, Fitzpatrick said that taking in view the data of weather changes in the last two millennia, it’s obvious that rapid warming of earth began about 150 years ago and accelerated especially in the mid-20th century. He said the climate change had not been caused by natural factors but mainly contributed by human factors, including greenhouse gases and burning of fossil fuel. He said if the current pattern continued, by the end of the current century, there would be unprecedented changes and Antarctica might lose all its ice and turn into a tropical forest.

Mr Fitzpatrick said this tragedy could be averted by controlling fossil fuel consumption but humans were running out of time.

Published in Dawn, July 17th, 2024