Germany will halve military aid for Ukraine next year, even with the possibility that Republican candidate Donald Trump could return to the White House and curb support for Kyiv.

German aid to Ukraine will be cut to four billion euros ($4.35bn) in 2025 from around 8bn euros in 2024, according to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters.

Germany hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50bn in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets agreed by the Group of Seven, and that funds earmarked for armaments will not be fully used.

“Ukraine’s financing is secured for the foreseeable future thanks to European instruments and the G7 loans,” German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Wednesday at a news conference.

Washington pushed to “front load” the loans to give Ukraine a big lump sum now.

Officials say EU leaders agreed to the idea in part because it reduces the chance of Ukraine being short of funds if Trump returns to the White House.

Alarm bells rang across Europe this week after Trump picked Senator JD Vance, who opposes military aid for Ukraine and warned Europe will have to rely less on the United States to defend the continent, as his candidate for vice president.

Trump sparked fierce criticism from Western officials for suggesting he would not protect countries that failed to meet the transatlantic military alliance’s defence spending targets and would even encourage Russia to attack them.

Germany has faced criticism for repeatedly missing a Nato target of spending two per cent of its economic output on defence.

Depleted military stocks

The stocks of Germany’s armed forces, already run down by decades of underinvestment, have been further depleted by arms supplies to Kyiv.

So far, Berlin has donated three Patriot air defence units to Kyiv, more than any other country, bringing down the number of Patriot systems in Germany to nine.

Germany’s fractious coalition of left-leaning Social Democrats, pro-business liberals and ecologist Greens has struggled to comply with Nato’s spending target due to self-imposed rules that limit the amount of state borrowing they can take on.

Although military aid to Ukraine will be cut, Germany will comply with the Nato target of spending 2pc of GDP on defence in 2025, with a total of 75.3bn euros.

Days after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende” — German for historic turning point — with a 100bn euro special fund to bring the military up to speed.

From this special fund, there will be 22bn euros more for defence, plus 53.3bn euros in the regular budget, still less than that sought by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.

The defence budget is set to receive a meagre 1.3bn euros more than in 2024, far below the 6.7bn euros requested by Pistorius.

As ever-increasing annual operating costs outpace this rise, the defence ministry is being forced to cut ammunition orders for 2025 by more than half, reduce procurement by 260 million euros and research and development by over 200m euros.

The budget for 2025 comes with the mid-term financial planning until 2028, the year when the armed forces’ special fund to meet Nato’s minimum spending goals is due to run out and 80bn will be needed for defence, as noted in the financial plan.

In 2028, there is a gap of 39bn euros in the regular budget, of which 28bn euros are needed to comply with the Nato target without the special fund, sources from the finance ministry said.

Decisions on how the hole will be plugged are not likely to be taken until after the 2025 election.

“The 80bn euros that have been put on display for 2028 simply do not exist,” said Ingo Gaedechens, a member of the parliament’s budget committee from the conservative opposition party CDU.

“The coalition is not even trying to cover this up but are openly admitting it.”

Opinion

Editorial

Counterterrorism plan
Updated 23 Nov, 2024

Counterterrorism plan

Lacunae in our counterterrorism efforts need to be plugged quickly.
Bullish stock market
23 Nov, 2024

Bullish stock market

NORMALLY, stock markets rise gradually. In recent months, however, Pakistan’s stock market has soared to one ...
Political misstep
23 Nov, 2024

Political misstep

FORMER first lady Bushra Bibi’s video address to PTI followers has triggered a firestorm. Her assertion implying...
Kurram atrocity
Updated 22 Nov, 2024

Kurram atrocity

It would be a monumental mistake for the state to continue ignoring the violence in Kurram.
Persistent grip
22 Nov, 2024

Persistent grip

An audit of polio funds at federal and provincial levels is sorely needed, with obstacles hindering eradication efforts targeted.
Green transport
22 Nov, 2024

Green transport

THE government has taken a commendable step by announcing a New Energy Vehicle policy aiming to ensure that by 2030,...