IF someone were to say we have moved a step closer to the abyss, one can be certain there’ll be many critics who would accuse that person of indulging in the art of the understatement, because they believe the country has already taken a freefall into a bottomless pit. But has it?

In a nation of nearly a quarter of a billion people wracked by poverty and all the issues that flow from it, it is easy to become a prophet of doom and gloom and lose all hope and perspective. That Pakistan is polarised, each one of us can see; but few of us can see a way out of this quagmire.

One can focus on the dire, fragile state of the economy, look at the dismal state of governance, assess the ramifications of the confrontation between the various potent players of the state, each of whom wants a greater chunk of power for themselves — no matter how worthy the terms in which they couch their efforts — and one can only cower in fear at the deteriorating security situation/ terror attacks.

Despite these factors, this columnist remains an optimist. Being an optimist is far better than being a pessimist, eternally waiting for the next disaster, for Armageddon. However, there is a fine line between seeing a silver lining in every cloud and being utterly delusional.

More directly, it means that Pakistan’s key institutions and players are set on a collision course and, over the coming days and weeks, it is going to become abundantly clear whether any one of them is willing to take a step back, take stock and realign their positions — if they don’t, a total breakdown is inevitable.

Pakistan’s key institutions and players are set on a collision course.

So far, the signs have not been encouraging. The biggest sign came in the vocal outburst of the PML-N leader and Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz, who called on the Supreme Court judges to rethink their “rehabilitation” of Imran Khan and others in his party who, in her view, had badly damaged the country and were ‘mujrim’ (criminals).

In an address to a live audience in Punjab, Ms Nawaz used language such as ‘we will resist’, to ‘I am requesting’ the Supreme Court, to saying those who don’t mend their ways will be dealt with an iron hand. This statement spoke of her desperation and fear.

Desperation because she is locked in a zero-sum game. Any ground gained by her opponent, namely Imran Khan, is at her expense. I suspect the PML-N feels that the direction in which things are headed on the legal-constitutional front could eventually lead to an annulment of the February election and an order of fresh polls.

This is the position or fear of some senior PML-N leaders, I must stress. They privately say their fears are based on the rapid-fire verdicts coming from the judiciary, which have granted relief to Imran Khan and the PTI. In their opinion, the verdicts are not based on the merits of the cases.

PML-N insiders cite the reserved seats ruling, the acquittal of the former prime minister in a number of cases, and the Lahore High Court’s new chief justice’s decision to stick with her predecessor’s ruling on the right of the court to decide on the number of electoral tribunals and who will run these instead of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

If their fears are well founded, it would be safe to assume that the PML-N’s days are numbered. However, in the Islamic Republic, things are never that uncomplicated and simple. PML-N is now aligned with the establishment and we would be safe in assuming that the words Maryam Nawaz spoke were not hers alone.

Apart from the Punjab chief minister’s publicly aired concerns, there are other signs of pushback too. While stating that it will implement the Supreme Court ruling on the reserved seats, the devil in the detail of the ECP statement suggests a number of caveats.

One is reminded of the fate of the Supreme Court verdict on the conduct of general elections within a stipulated time frame. The election eventually happened well after this deadline and there wasn’t much anyone could do about it. Pakistan and Pakistanis live with a certain amount of anarchy in their lives.

But imagine a scenario where the Supreme Court delivers a verdict and those charged with implementing it in the executive start dragging their feet. If a government, backed by the establishment, were to appear unwilling to help, wouldn’t it create a constitutional breakdown?

I know I’ll come in for flak for spelling out things as I see them and will be accused of not standing on the right side; ie, on the side of the Constitution and the rule of law. To me, it is far more important to warn of the dangers rather than say things that meet with general approval.

It can’t be stressed enough that the well-being of vast swathes of the poor and the middle class in the country is inextricably tied to political stability, as the economy can only have a chance of growing and flourishing in such an environment.

Will all our good and mighty protagonists put off their power grabs for another day and agree on some sort of truce for now, at least, for the sake of the dozens of millions who live below the poverty threshold; for the sake of our country and its future?

If we continue down this path, the only guaranteed destination is disaster. The one optimistic twist one can put on that is: perhaps we will rise, Phoenix-like, from the ashes and find a workable new social contract. But as a nation, the price for getting there may be just way too high and bloody.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, July 21st, 2024