• Khamenei ‘authorises’ retaliation; Hezbollah chief calls a response ‘inevitable’
• Israel at ‘high level of preparation’ for any attack, says Netanyahu
• NYT claims Hamas leader killed by bomb planted ‘months in advance’
• World leaders urge calm; Pakistan to observe day of mourning today

TEHRAN / DOHA / BEIRUT: The possibility of a conflagration between the Iranian and Israeli blocs continues to hang like the proverbial Sword of Damocles over the Middle East, amid sabre-rattling in Tel Aviv, Tehran and Beirut.

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh’s body arrived in Qatar for last rites on Thursday after a public funeral in the Iranian capital, which called for revenge against Israel.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah said they were bound to respond to Israel’s killing of its top military commander, Fuad Shukr, but called the Hamas leader’s killing a “dangerous assas­sination” that crossed “red lines”.

“The enemy, and those who are behind the enemy, must await our inevitable response,” he said.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayat­ollah Ali Khamenei has already ordered a retaliatory strike against Israel, the New York Times reported, and its ‘Axis of Resistance’ — including Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and several Iraqi militias — are said to be considering a coordinated response that could stop short of an all-out war.

“Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” a source who was privy to a meeting between Iranian officials and representatives of these groups, told AFP.

A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a loose alliance of pro-Iran groups, told AFP that “Iran will lead the first response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni and Syrian factions, striking military targets, followed by a second response from Hezbollah”.

Israel, meanwhile, said it was prepared for any “aggression”. “Israel is at a very high level of preparation for any scenario, both defensive and offensive. We will make any act of aggression against us pay a very high price. Those who attack us, we will attack in return,” PM Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

Hamas will observe a “day of furious rage” today (Friday), to coincide with Haniyeh’s burial in Qatar.

Bomb, not missile: NYT

The assassination of Haniyeh was earlier thought to have been carried out via a missile or drone strike. However, an NYT report said on Thursday that the explosive device that claimed the Hamas leader’s life had been planted in a Tehran guesthouse months in advance.

In its report, NYT said that the explosive device was covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse approximately two months ago and detonated remotely. The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighbourhood of northern Tehran.

“How the bomb was stashed in the guesthouse remained unclear,” the NYT report said, adding that officials indicated the planning for the assassination may have taken months and required extensive surveillance of the compound.

“The deadly blast early Wednesday shattered windows and collapsed a portion of the wall of the compound, photographs showed and the Iranian officials said. It appeared to do minimal damage beyond the building itself, as a missile probably would have done.”

Startled building staff members, the officials said, ran to find the source of the tremendous noise, leading them to the room where Haniyeh was staying with a bodyguard.

The compound is staffed with a medical team which rushed to the room immediately after the explosion. The team declared that Mr. Haniyeh had died immediately. The team tried to revive the bodyguard, but he, too, was dead.

The leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, was staying next door, two of the Iranian officials said. His room was not badly damaged, suggesting precise planning in the targeting of Mr. Haniyeh.

But questions are being raised about NYT’s claim, as it implies foreknowledge that President Raisi would be killed, leading to a presidential election and Haniyeh’s attendance in the inauguration, as well as certainty on where he would be staying during his time in Tehran.

What kind of response?

Iran and its allies are widely expected to respond militarily to the killings blamed on Israel, which has claimed responsibility only for Shukr’s death, though experts say the retaliation would be measured to avoid a wider conflagration.

Iranian analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi told AFP that “a stronger response is expected” from Tehran than during its last direct face-off with Israel in April.

Amal Saad of Cardiff University said Iran and Hezbollah will not want to play into Netanyahu’s hands and give him the bait or ammunition he needs to drag the US into a war.

“They will more than likely try to avert a war while also strongly deterring Israel from continuing with this new policy, this targeted shock and awe.”

For its part, the White House said the two killings hours apart “don’t help” regional tensions, though Nati­o­nal Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Washington saw “no signs that an escalation is imminent”.

Calls for calm

The threat of a flare-up in the Middle East is giving many foreign capitals sleepless nights.

While calling the killing of Haniyeh a barbaric act that was a flagrant violation of international laws and rules, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Netanyahu was out to destroy Palestine.

He was speaking at a consultative meeting of the allied parties on the deteriorating situation in Palestine, where a joint declaration was made that the nation would observe a day of mourning on Friday (today) in memory of the slain Hamas leader.

The killing of Haniyeh, who was Hamas’ chief negotiator in truce talks, has all but derailed any chance of peace in Gaza.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday urged “all parties” in the Middle East to stop “escalatory actions” and achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. He warned the Middle East was on a path “toward more conflict, more violence, more suffering, more insecurity, and it is crucial that we break this cycle”.

South Africa’s government said the assassination risked plunging the Middle East into further turmoil.

“South Africa is concerned that the assassination of Dr Haniyeh and the continuous targeting of civilians in Gaza will further spiral the already tense situation in the entire region,” the government’s department of international relations and cooperation said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also held a phone call with Iran’s acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani, where both sides expressed their condemnation of the killing and pointed out “the extremely dangerous consequences of such actions”.

Published in Dawn, August 2nd, 2024