MINING in the deep sea has turned into a hot topic in the discourse on controlling planet-warming gases in the atmosphere.

To steadily transition away from fossil fuels, low-carbon technologies will require uninterrupted supplies of large quantities of critical minerals, or ‘battery minerals’ — cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese. Scientific evidence suggests that small rocks, or ‘nodules’, on the seabed, usually at a depth of four to six kilometres, contain large amounts of critical minerals.

Expansion in the photovoltaic industry and the recent growth in electric vehicles has increased demand. While terrestrial mining is largely meeting the current market demand, future demand, price volatility and supply chain concerns have put options for deep-sea mining in the spotlight.

The International Energy Agency’s Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 notes that the energy sector requirement was the main factor behind the “tripling in overall demand for lithium, a 70pc jump in demand for cobalt, and a 40pc rise in demand for nickel”. The IEA reported a 60pc increase in the sale of electric cars in 2022, exceeding 10 million units. In 2023, the number neared 14m and is expected to rise further, pushing up the demand for battery minerals and causing a rush to the bottom of the sea.

After a steep price rise in 2021 and 2022, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite declined in 2023, according to IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024. Meanwhile, some countries, appear to be preparing for deep-sea mining in their jurisdictions. Several others want to wait till more evidence is gathered on its impact on marine ecosystems and on economies dependent on terrestrial mining.

Diving deep to extract minerals may have consequences.

For areas beyond national jurisdictions, the absence of rules and regulations makes it riskier for marine biodiversity and ecosystems. The International Seabed Authority is working on preparing ground rules for deep seabed exploitation.

Environmental groups have voiced concerns that rushing to dive deep for extracting minerals would have repercussions for the marine environment and marine life as it would degrade one of the remaining ecosystems that has so far stayed largely secure from human intervention.

We face the disastrous consequences of extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and pollution, linked to health problems, economic losses and increase in poverty and inequality. Can the world afford to open a new front against nature? Enfeebled by human-induced environmental challenges and climate change, the planet is already in a fragile state. It cannot withstand another anthropogenic onslaught, this time on its seabed.

Available scientific data and information is insufficient to conclude that scraping the bottom of the sea for minerals will not harm ecosystems. Or that it will be economically beneficial compared to options for terrestrial mining.

A UNEP briefing paper notes the “paucity of data to support a detailed understanding of ecological relationships and impacts associated with deep-sea mining”. The paper, Harmful marine extractives, points out the “current scientific consensus” that “deep-sea mining will be highly damaging to ocean ecosystems” as, at present, no robust, precautionary approach exists to safeguard the ocean against its potential ecological impacts. The fishing industry and large coastal communities in developing countries dependent on fishing could be negatively affected too.

Planet Tra­ck­­er, a UK think tank, has questioned the economic viability of industrial seabed mining. According to its report, How to lose half a trill­i­­on, the value loss of activity for the ocean floor and terrestrial mining could be bet-ween $30 bil­lion to $132bn glob-

ally.

This scientific uncertainty has led governments, scientists, environmentalists, and the private sector to call for a moratorium on deep-sea mining until the ecological consequences are better understood. In an Issues Note, UNEP has pointed out that the “environmental, social, and economic impacts of exploiting the deep seabed are uncertain and potentially grave’. It has called for “a comprehensive analysis” to address the potential impact of deep-sea mining on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The UN Convention on Migratory Species has urged governments not to support deep-seabed mining until robust scientific data is obtained that such activities won’t harm “migratory species, their prey and their ecosystems”.

The implications of digging the seabed need to be analysed and understood, given the potential for grave risks. Sustainable consumption and production and circularity of critical minerals is one option to manage the demand, protect jobs and reduce the environmental footprint of terrestrial mining.

The writer is director of intergovernmental affairs, United Nations Environment Programme.

Published in Dawn, August 9th, 2024