Global stocks mostly rise as focus turns to US inflation data

Published August 12, 2024
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US —  Reuters
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US — Reuters

Asian markets mostly rose Monday as investors tried to move on from last week’s upheaval fuelled by US recession worries, with the focus shifting to the release of key inflation and retail data.

After a painful collapse fuelled by a big miss on US jobs creation, equities managed to bounce back over the following days and ended Friday on a healthy note.

The gains were helped by a report showing fewer people than expected claimed unemployment benefits, soothing fears that the world’s top economy was contracting.

However, analysts warned that while some calm has returned to trading floors, traders remained on edge and were nervously awaiting the release of the next round of indicators.

The consumer price index and retail sales reports this week could provide the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates.

Expectations are that the bank will lower borrowing costs 25 basis points next month, and at least once more before January, thanks to a string of data suggesting prices have been brought under control.

Still, Fed officials offered differing views on the outlook for rates.

Governor Michelle Bowman said she still thought inflation could bounce back and remained cautious about making any reductions too early.

But Boston Fed chief Susan Collins said officials could start cutting soon if data continued to show prices were being tamed.

“The real meltdown could come if we get a double whammy: higher CPI paired with lower retail sales,” warned Stephen Innes.

“That combo would have folks running for the fire exits faster than you can yell ‘stagflation’,” he wrote in his Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter.

“And… after the latest (jobs) growth scare, a higher inflation print might do the damage all on its own.”

All three main indexes in New York ended on a positive note on Friday.

On Monday, Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Mumbai, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington rose, as did London, Paris and Frankfurt, while Shanghai, Singapore and Manila edged down.

Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

The yen weakened following last week’s gyrations, which saw it surge to a six-month high against the dollar after the weak US jobs figures fanned Fed rate cut bets.

That came as the Bank of Japan hiked its own rates for the second time in 17 years and indicated more were in the pipeline.

Comments last week aimed at reassuring investors that it would not move while markets were volatile helped settle some nerves.

But Luca Santos at ACY Securities said: “This apparent stability might be temporary. The broader market sentiment, influenced by expectations of significant rate cuts, suggests underlying uncertainties.

“The anticipation of a cumulative 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, followed by another 100 basis points in 2025, reflects a growing belief that the Federal Reserve may need to ease monetary policy more aggressively to support economic growth.”

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

Military option
Updated 21 Nov, 2024

Military option

While restoring peace is essential, addressing Balochistan’s socioeconomic deprivation is equally important.
HIV/AIDS disaster
21 Nov, 2024

HIV/AIDS disaster

A TORTUROUS sense of déjà vu is attached to the latest health fiasco at Multan’s Nishtar Hospital. The largest...
Dubious pardon
21 Nov, 2024

Dubious pardon

IT is disturbing how a crime as grave as custodial death has culminated in an out-of-court ‘settlement’. The...
Islamabad protest
Updated 20 Nov, 2024

Islamabad protest

As Nov 24 draws nearer, both the PTI and the Islamabad administration must remain wary and keep within the limits of reason and the law.
PIA uncertainty
20 Nov, 2024

PIA uncertainty

THE failed attempt to privatise the national flag carrier late last month has led to a fierce debate around the...
T20 disappointment
20 Nov, 2024

T20 disappointment

AFTER experiencing the historic high of the One-day International series triumph against Australia, Pakistan came...