ISLAMABAD: After a consistent rise over the past two decades, air pollution in South Asia declined by 18 per cent in one year possibly on the back of above-normal rainfall in that year but still was the biggest external threat, said the 2024 report by the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI).

Despite this slight decline which also led to a drop in global air pollution levels, South Asia remains one of the most polluted regions, accounting for 45 percent of total life years lost due to high pollution. The report stated that the average person living in the region would gain 3.5 years in their lives if WHO guidelines of 5 g/m3 were met.

In Pakistan, pollution decreased the average resident’s life expectancy by 3.3 years. In more polluted areas, such as Peshawar and Lahore, it is shortening lives by more than 5 years. “In Pakistan…the PM2.5 standard is much stricter (set at 15 g/m3), and virtually the country’s entire population breathes air that doesn’t meet the standard,” the report noted.

According to the study, the impact of pollution on life expectancy is comparable to that of smoking, more than 4 times that of high alcohol use, more than 5 times that of transport injuries like car crashes, and more than 6 times that of HIV/AIDS.

AQLI report notes pollution in South Asia dropped by 18pc in 2022 due to above-normal rainfall

Slight drop

With the exception of Sri Lanka, all South Asian states witnessed a decrease in air pollution in 2022. In Pakistan, there was a 10 per cent decline in particulate levels (PM2.5) compared to 2021 with its PM2.5 concentration reported at 38.9 g/m3, down by 4 g/m3. The decline in Bangladesh was the steepest, where annual PM2.5 concentrations were lower by more than 15 g/m3, followed by India and Nepal where concentrations were lower by approximately 9 g/m3.

As per the study, the PM2.5 levels in South Asia had average 48 g/m3 between 2012 and 2021 but they were 41.4 g/m3 in 2022 — an approximate 14 percent decline compared to the decade’s average. This decline if sustained is equivalent to a potential gain in life expectancy of 7.9 months.

The study suggested that meteorological causes, such as above-normal rainfall in 2022 likely played a strong role in this decline and that it was too early to comment if the policy changes were having an impact.

Inequality as key theme

The report noted that inequality—both in pollution and policies—emerged as a key theme. “People in the most polluted areas of the world breathe air that is six times more polluted than those in the least polluted areas. As a result, their life expectancy is reduced by an average of 2.7 years compared to those living in the cleanest places,” the AQLI report noted.

“While air pollution remains a global problem, its largest impacts are concentrated in a relatively small number of countries—cutting lives short several years in some places and even more than 6 years in some regions,” said Michael Greenstone, creator of the AQLI along with colleagues at Epic.

Growing threat

Despite the decline, the threat of air pollution will grow without concerted policy action given the energy demand, the report said, adding that rapid industrialisation and population growth had led to skyrocketing energy demand and fossil fuel use across the region.

It noted that in India and Pakistan, the number of vehicles increased about fourfold since the early 2000s whereas in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal combined the electricity generation from fossil fuels tripled from 1998 to 2017.

In light of these practices, the study noted that sustained efforts and rigorous monitoring were critical to curb air pollution as weather-linked improvements may be temporary.

Dr Mohammad Afzaal, a director at the Pakistan Meteorological Department, agreed. Above-normal rainfall can improve air quality, but its impacts are temporary and without sustained and concerted measures the air quality will only worsen in the future, he noted. The Met official said almost 70pc of carbon emissions were vehicular and it was high time Pakistan moved towards electric vehicles and bikes.

The AQLI, however, did present a silver lining, saying governments in the region were beginning to respond due to increasing awareness about air pollution. “In Pakistan, the government began installing more pollution monitors and shutting down factories in highly polluted districts during the winter months when energy demand for heating is high,” the report said, adding Pakistan also encouraged brick kiln owners to shift to cleaner technologies.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2024