RENDERED momentarily irre­l­evant by the results of the February 2024 election, the chief of his own faction of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), Maulana Fazlur Rehman, has returned to the limelight with both the government and the opposition trying to woo him to their side.

The Maulana is not only in negotiations with the main opposition party, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), and exte­nding support for the Jamaat-i-Islami’s protests against infl­ated electricity bills, but he is also meeting government representatives, as well as emissaries of the establishment.

“The Maulana knows that the present regime lacks legitimacy and that the public mood is against any alignment with the PPP and PML-N,” said Imtiaz Gul, executive director of an Islamabad-based think tank. “Therefore, he is trying to gain more [leverage].”

Fazlur Rehman was one of the most vocal critics of the establishment during the PTI government and his annoyance doesn’t seem to have diminished =. The results of the 2024 election shocked his party, and he still believes his mandate was stolen. His anger has brought him closer to the PTI, which has similar objections to the results.

The Maulana may have been denied electoral success on Feb 8, but his political clout ensures him a place in the midst of the current political milieu, with both the govt and opposition jostling for his support

However, his grievances with the establishment remain resolvable, as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently assured the JUI-F chief in their meeting. PM Shehbaz is said to be considering all options to take him back in the government’s fold in the coming weeks, and security sources say it is a done deal that the Maulana will return to his side.

Wooing the Maulana

Jan Achakzai was one of the first emissaries to meet the Maulana at his residence after the February 8 elections. A cabinet member in Balochistan’s previous caretaker setup, Mr Achakzai has previously served as the Maulana’s spokesman around a decade ago.

Their meeting took place soon after the JUI-F chief met Mehmood Khan Achakzai, the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) chief, in March 2024.

After Jan Achakzai’s tete-a-tete with the Maulana, another ‘messenger’ visited the latter. The official hand-out of the meeting, released on June 14, 2024, read: “Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited JUI(F) Chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman at his residence in Islamabad and inquired about his health. The Federal Interior Minister expressed good wishes for Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s health and well-being. He emphasised that he had a longstanding relationship of more than 25 years with Maulana Fazlur Rehman, which is based on respect and esteem.”

However, talks between the Maulana and the government stalled due to the federal budget. Meanwhile, meetings with PTI leaders continued during this period.

The reason for the government and the establishment trying to woo the Maulana seems to be his party’s strength on the streets rather than the JUI-F’s strength in parliament.

“The Maulana may not be that useful in terms of votes for the incumbent government, but his alignment with PTI could be challenging for it,” says Shahzada Zulfiqar, a senior Quetta-based journalist, adding that JUI-F is the only party that has considerable street power in all the four provinces.

“If supporters of the maulana and the PTI are together on the streets anywhere in country, the situation can be difficult to handle by the government,” he said, giving the example of Mehmood Achakzai and BNP-M chief Akhtar Mengal, who have recently developed close liaisons with the PTI, but neither the establishment nor the government is worried, apparently because they do not have the street power to pose a challenge to the authorities.

The JUI-F’s price

PTI leader Zain Qureshi recently told the media that the JUI-F had demanded two seats in the Senate in exchange for the party’s support — mainly in parliament, but possibly also on the streets during the former’s anti-government drives. However, the JUI-F denied this claim.

On the other hand, party insiders said the JUI-F chief had demanded two ministries, one chairmanship of a standing committee, and one seat in the Senate from the prime minister. However, neither the party spokesperson nor any other JUI-F leader would confirm or deny this.

Currently, the JUI-F has only eight seats in the National Assembly, including that of its chief, who is MNA from NA-265 Pishin, Balochistan. Unlike the PPP and PML-N scions, the Maulana’s next generation is presently out of politics.

His son, Maulana Asad Mehmood, lost the election from NA-43 Dera-cum-Tank to Dawar Khan Kundi, the PTI’s candidate, by a small margin of 826 votes. The party claimed that the junior maulana had been defeated deliberately.

‘Practical’ considerations

The elections have placed the Maulana at a political disadvantage in his home constituency of Dera Ismail Khan, where both arch-rivals have risen to top slots in the province. Faisal Karim Kundi of the PPP is now governor, while Ali Amin Gandapur of the PTI is chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Mehmood Jan Babar, a Peshawar-based journalist, pointed out that the maulana had been expecting to get the KP government. His frustration seems ‘justified’, Mr Babar said, as the PPP got Sindh and the PML-N got Punjab and the centre.

“The Maulana knows that he cannot wait for long. He is currently trying to capitalise on the position taken by the PTI to raise his stakes and improve his bargaining position,” Mr Babar added.

Another issue the Maulana faces is the growing pressure on his party’s finances. Experts believe the government’s new policy to curb smuggling from Afghanistan has been hurting the supporters of the JUI-F, which is why they have been pushing their party heads to become part of the system.

Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2024