Given Pakistan’s huge population, currently growing at 2.55 per cent annually, as revealed by the 7th National Population and Housing Census 2023, the country needs to boost agricultural output by at least the same rate, if not higher. Across the globe, the most common approach used to accomplish this is through intensification (enhancing crop yields and cropping intensity) and extensification (expanding cultivated area) of agriculture.

From 2001 to 2022, the cultivable land area of Pakistan has remained nearly stagnant at approximately 22-22.5 million hectares, with urbanisation eating up any progress made in developing new land. However, large-scale ongoing efforts are currently underway, under the Green Pakistan Initiative to develop 4.8m acres of barren land in Cholistan and in some other regions. Nevertheless, water remains the primary limiting factor in land expansion.

However, even if these efforts succeed — and they must — the increase in Pakistan’s total cultivable area would be 8pc which would be offset within just three years due to high population growth rate. Meanwhile, a considerable amount of fertile agricultural land is likely to be encroached upon by the housing sector in urban and rural areas. Resultantly, the net increase in agricultural land will be minimal, making it essential to focus more on improving crop yields and cropping intensity (CI).

The CI currently stands at 1.59, but any efforts to improve it in irrigated areas — impractical in rain-fed regions — will require additional irrigation water, either from surface or groundwater sources. Pakistan has limited water storage capacity, therefore the country is grappling with severe groundwater depletion, with withdrawals far outpacing the aquifer’s natural replenishment rate.

Most PSDP and ADP agricultural projects are not strategically aligned and fail to bridge the gap between potential and actual crop yields

Notably, the Indus Basin aquifer has been ranked by international organisations as the world’s second most overstressed aquifer. Therefore, CI has largely been overlooked in government policies and strategic plans.

Given these circumstances, and after ruling out other options, increasing crop yields has become the most critical priority for sustaining and securing the country’s food supply. Unfortunately, in recent decades, crop yields have failed to keep pace with the rapid population growth.

Between 2001 and 2023, Pakistan’s population grew from 143m to 241m, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.43pc. However, over the same period, wheat yields increased by just 1.35pc CAGR, while rice and sugarcane yields grew by a mere 0.85pc and 1.84pc, respectively. With the exception of maize and potatoes, nearly all important crops followed a similar trend.

Undoubtedly, in recent decades, production volumes of major staple crops — wheat and rice — and of essential commodities like sugarcane have increased, but this is partly attributed to the expansion in crop acreage.

With the total cultivable area of the country remaining static over the past 22 years, this expansion is primarily the result of crop switching. For instance, sugarcane, rice, maize, and sesame have increasingly replaced cotton fields over the past decade. Similarly, wheat has replaced the chickpea and oilseeds acreage.

An increase in Pakistan’s total cultivable area would be 8pc, which would be offset within three years due to the high population growth rate

Increasing the area of staple food crops and essential commodities at the expense of other crops is not a sustainable solution and could potentially lead to higher imports of both major and minor crops, down the road. Crop yield depends on several factors, including the proper and timely application of fertiliser, pesticide, and irrigation. Additionally, employing efficient harvesting techniques that minimise crop losses is crucial.

Over the past 22 years (2001-2023), the disappointing improvement in crop yields highlights a major shortcoming in our agricultural policies and public investments funneled through Pakistan’s Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), and provincial Annual Development Programmes (ADPs).

The majority of schemes initiated under the PSDP and ADPs are neither crop yield-responsive nor strategically aligned to bridge the gap between potential and actual yield. The current approach appears fragmented and unfocused, leading to poor value for money and missed opportunities to address the real challenges.

For instance, the Punjab province contributes around 70pc of the country’s agricultural produce. In the current ADP 2024-25, Rs64.6 billion has been allocated to the Punjab Agriculture Department, which includes Rs19.25bn for ongoing schemes and Rs45.25bn for the Chief Minister’s initiatives. Notably, Rs30bn — 46.5pc of the total ADP — has been earmarked for distributing tractors to farmers, with reports indicating 10,000 units.

This is despite Punjab already having 570,000 tractors — reflecting a ratio of 56 acres per tractor. Distributing tractors, where they are already sufficient and a well-established rental market exists in rural areas, does not lead to meaningful mechanisation and would have a subpar impact, as illustrated by the law of diminishing marginal utility.

Moreover, the eligibility criteria for farmers — one to 50 acre owners — do not align with the ground realities, as most farmers with more than 20 acres already own a tractor. Therefore, it is justified to question the need for such a large allocation.

The solarisation of 7,000 existing agricultural tubewells, valued at Rs9bn, is yet another populist scheme in the ADP, with minimal potential to improve crop yields. Unfortunately, the fundamental assumptions used to assess the economic and social returns of such investments are often flawed and based on imperfect data.

Merely, dishing out tractors, solar systems, agricultural implements, and other items to a limited segment of farmers does not constitute a sustainable policy to address the pressing food security challenges currently facing the country.

In conclusion, after conducting a thorough gap analysis, the federal and provincial governments should prioritise the key factors that have the greatest impact on yield improvements and allocate funds accordingly. While the country may have had greater financial flexibility in the past, current budgetary constraints necessitate that each and every rupee is spent with economic prudence, rather than on populist measures.

Khalid Wattoo is a farmer and a development professional Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former Associate Professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 9th, 2024