FORTY days after Sheikh Hasina Wajed fled Dhaka, Bangladesh is slowly recovering from the after-effects of her government’s violent crackdown on the students-led protests, that reportedly cost over 1,000 lives. The intellectual community worldwide is curious to understand why Hasina, who cultivated her image as the ‘iron lady’, lost her grip on power so rapidly, as well as the nature of the change in Bangladesh. Since 2009, Hasina ruled Bangladesh like an autocrat, crushing all opposition ruthlessly. She also built a cult around the figure of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Her ouster pacified widespread concerns in the country regarding the erosion of multiparty democracy under her and the attempt to impose one-party rule.

It has certainly been a peoples’ moment in Bangladesh, with terms such as ‘Monsoon Revolution’ being used to describe the change. However, it is not clear if this change is permanent and if political stability will return to the country soon. Hasina’s party, the Awami League, has lost considerable ground, but will endeavour to make a comeback, arguing that it represented the country’s secular ethos. Her 15-year rule enabled the party to spread its tentacles to every aspect of national life. Under her, the country saw notable economic development, though this was not inclusive and inequalities sharpened amidst unemployment and inflation.

In foreign policy, Hasina chose to capitulate to Indian dominance, which for the freedom-loving Bangladeshis was suffocating. For now, India’s space in Bangladesh has been squeezed, but it is evident that it will make every effort to preserve its influence. Of crucial interest to India is border security, given the 4,000-kilometre-long porous border and active insurgencies in India’s north-eastern states. However, the immediate challenge for India’s leaders is how to handle the presence of Hasina in their country. As long as she is in Delhi, the latter’s relations with Dhaka are not likely to improve. Given that the two countries signed an extradition treaty in 2013, many in Bangladesh have called for seeking her return to stand trial for the over 90 criminal cases lodged against her and her aides.

India is trying to manipulate the narrative that brought about the change in Bangladesh. Indian researchers and media are advancing a narrative that the change would nudge Bangladesh towards Muslim fundamentalism, and that the Hindus in Bangladesh were being targeted, which according to the BBC were mostly rumours. Ironically, it is India where religious persecution has risen to alarming levels. India is also desperately projecting the possible involvement of a foreign hand in the change, which appears to be totally indigenous. This is intended to discredit the change brought about by the sacrifice of the students who stood up to Hasina’s tyranny.

It is not clear when political stability will return.

Meanwhile, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus is struggling to address the politically charged environment and reboot the economy, which was slowing down even before the protests began. The country’s garment industry has taken a particular hit due to the weeks-long protests. The government has set up a task force called ‘Re-strategising the economy and mobilising resources for equitable and sustainable development’.

Politically, a healing touch is required. The student leadership wants fundamental reforms in the judiciary, police, and election commission before the polls. It appears that elections may be delayed for some time.

As for the regional setting, Muhammad Yunus has underscored the need to revive Saarc, which was established in Dhaka in 1985. He wants Bangladesh to be­­co­­me a member of Asean and then serve as a bridge between Saarc and Asean.

How should Pakis­tan respond to this change? Pakistanis care for the people of Bangladesh, and should fully respect their right to determine their political destiny in whatever way they want. However, Pakistan can take satisfaction from the fact that Hasina will no longer be able to falsely accuse it or manipulate the sad events of 1971. The poisonous propaganda against Pakistan might also stop.

Hasina’s exit from power provides an opportunity for Pakistan and Bangladesh to reset bilateral ties. However, Pakistan must have realistic expectations of what the new interim government can do at a time when it is endeavouring to set matters right internally.

Pakistan has done well by expressing solidarity with the people of Bangladesh in the face of the devastating floods that recently hit the country’s eastern region. The two countries could also encourage people-to-people contacts and youth exchanges that Hasina had blocked. It would be appropriate for both countries to move towards each other at a measured pace with realistic expectations.

The writer is a former foreign secretary and chairman of Sanober Institute Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2024