China unveils fresh stimulus to boost ailing economy

Published September 24, 2024
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, speaks during a press conference — AFP File Photo
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, speaks during a press conference — AFP File Photo

China unveiled some of its boldest measures in years on Tuesday aimed at boosting its struggling economy as leaders grapple with a prolonged property sector debt crisis, continued deflationary pressure and high youth unemployment.

The world’s second-largest economy has yet to achieve a highly anticipated post-pandemic recovery and the government has set a goal of five per cent growth in 2024 — an objective analysts say is optimistic given the headwinds it is facing.

On Tuesday, central bank chief Pan Gongsheng told a news conference in Beijing that it would cut a slew of rates in a bid to boost growth, pledging to “promote the expansion of consumption and investment”.

The moves represent “the most significant… stimulus package since the early days of the pandemic”, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.

But “it may not be enough”, he warned, adding a full economic recovery would “require more substantial fiscal support than the modest pick-up in government spending that’s currently in the pipeline”.

Among the moves unveiled Tuesday was a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which dictates the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve. The move will inject around a trillion yuan ($141.7 billion) in “long-term liquidity” into the financial market, Pan said.

Beijing would also “lower the interest rates of existing mortgage loans”. And it will “guide commercial banks to lower the interest rates of existing mortgage loans to the vicinity of the interest rates of newly issued loans”.

The move would benefit 150 million people across the country, Pan said, and reduce “the average annual household interest bill by about 150 billion yuan”.

More cash please

Shares in Hong Kong surged more than three pc and Shanghai more than two pc after China unveiled the measures.

But Heron Lim at Moody’s Analytics said the move was expected given gloomy economic data in recent months suggesting Beijing could miss its 2024 growth target.

“But this is hardly a bazooka stimulus,” he told AFP.

“Far more monetary easing and a stronger government stimulus is also desirable to finish bailing out the real estate market and inject more confidence into the economy,” he said.

At a minimum, he added, “broader direct household support in helping them consume more goods will be useful, which is currently just too narrowly designed for industrial goods”.

Another analyst said the “measures are a step in the right direction”.

“We continue to believe that there is still room for further easing in the months ahead,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

Property and construction have long accounted for more than a quarter of China’s gross domestic product, but the sector has been under unprecedented strain since 2020, when authorities tightened developers’ access to credit in a bid to reduce mounting debt.

Since then, major companies including China Evergrande and Country Garden have teetered, while falling prices have dissuaded consumers from investing in property.

Beijing has unveiled a number of measures aimed at boosting the sector, including cutting the minimum down payment rate for first-time homebuyers and suggesting the government could buy up commercial real estate.

But those failed to boost confidence and housing prices have continued to slide.

Adding further strain, local authorities in China face a ballooning debt burden of $5.6 trillion, according to the central government, raising worries about wider economic stability.

Speaking alongside the central bank chief Tuesday, Li Yunze, director of the National Administration of Financial Regulation, said Beijing will “actively cooperate in resolving real estate and local government debt risks”.

“China’s financial industry, especially large financial institutions, is operating stably and risks are controllable,” he insisted.

“We will firmly maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks,” he added.

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

Islamabad protest
Updated 20 Nov, 2024

Islamabad protest

As Nov 24 draws nearer, both the PTI and the Islamabad administration must remain wary and keep within the limits of reason and the law.
PIA uncertainty
20 Nov, 2024

PIA uncertainty

THE failed attempt to privatise the national flag carrier late last month has led to a fierce debate around the...
T20 disappointment
20 Nov, 2024

T20 disappointment

AFTER experiencing the historic high of the One-day International series triumph against Australia, Pakistan came...
Tribunals’ failure
Updated 19 Nov, 2024

Tribunals’ failure

With election tribunals having failed to fulfil their purpose, it isn't surprising that Pakistan has not been able to stabilise.
Balochistan MPC
19 Nov, 2024

Balochistan MPC

WHILE immediate threats to law and order must be confronted by security forces, the long-term solution to...
Firm tax measures
19 Nov, 2024

Firm tax measures

FINANCE Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is ready to employ force to make everyone and every sector in Pakistan pay their...