• The region faces growing threats to economic viability, even existence
• One billion people in low-lying areas vulnerable to storm surges, flooding

SYDNEY: Within 30 years, sea levels will rise at least 15 centimetres on several Pacific island nations, regardless of what cuts are made to greenhouse gas emissions, new Nasa analysis shows.

Under different emission scenarios, researchers projected sea level rises for Tuvalu, Kiribati, Fiji and Nau­ru, finding some countries could experience localised flooding a few times a year. Others could be submer­ged for nearly half a year, according to the analysis released on Wednesday.

Almost the entire country of Tuvalu is vulnerable to flooding, Nasa found.

Even under a best-case scenario — if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — sea levels will rise 23 centimetres (nine inches) by 2054.

“Everyone (in Tuvalu) lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this,” said youth climate activist Grace Malie, who is from the island.

“The future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake,” Malie added.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, Tuvalu could face sea levels rising 27 centimetres, and 30 centimetres under a worst-case scenario.

The low-lying archipelago has a mean elevation of just two metres (6.5 feet) above sea level and two of Tuvalu’s nine islands have already largely disappeared.

‘Consistent’ sea level estimates

Nasa researcher Ben Hamlington said rising seas vary from region to region — due to melting glaciers or topography of coastlines — but Pacific projections were “surprisingly consistent”.

Within the next 30 years under a business-as-usual scenario, rising sea levels across Kiribati and Fiji will reach 27 centimetres and 28 centimetres, respectively.

By 2100, sea levels could increase by 70 centimetres across the Pacific islands.

The researchers drew on flooding data and climate emission projections to determine the sea level inundation.

But Hamlington said more on-the-ground data was needed to ensure the most accurate projections, which would allow communities to best prepare for the future.

Nearly a billion people worldwide live in low-lying coastal areas, increasingly vulnerable to storm surges, coastal erosion and flooding — while Pacific islands face growing threats to their economic viability and even existence.

Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo said this year that rising seas and more frequent flooding have increased soil salinity, reducing crop yields and weakening trees.

Infrastructure such as roads and power lines has been washed away.

“Higher land on which to rebuild does not exist,” he said.

Fiji, like other countries, has resorted to relocating entire villages from the most flood-prone areas since 2014.

But the government estimates more than 600 communities could be forced to move and 42 villages are under urgent threat of inundation.

University of New South Wales climate lecturer Ben Shaw said the issue was particularly difficult because every Pacific nation is figuring out how to deal with the issue.

“That is going to be the watershed moment,” he said.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2024

Editorial

Shocking ambush
13 Mar, 2025

Shocking ambush

THE chilling ambush of the Jaffar Express on Tuesday by terrorists is a rude wake-up call, reminding us of the...
Suffocating crisis
13 Mar, 2025

Suffocating crisis

THREE of the five countries with the most polluted air on Earth are in South Asia. They include Pakistan, which has...
Captive grid
13 Mar, 2025

Captive grid

IT is a common practice: the government makes commitments with global lenders for their money and then tries to...
State Bank’s caution
Updated 12 Mar, 2025

State Bank’s caution

Easing monetary policy will be difficult for SBP without large, sustainable foreign capital inflows and structural tax reforms.
Syria massacre
12 Mar, 2025

Syria massacre

THERE were valid fears of sectarian and religious bloodshed when anti-Assad militants triumphantly marched into...
Too little, too late
12 Mar, 2025

Too little, too late

WHEN desperation reaches a point that a father has to end his life to save his daughter’s, the state has failed ...