THIS is with reference to the report ‘Tehran answers Israeli aggression in Lebanon with ballistic missile salvo’ (Oct 2) and the editorial ‘Iranian salvo’ (Oct 3). As I see it, Iran has fallen into the stra-tegic trap laid out by Israel for the second time.

I say this because the formidable offensive as well as defensive military capabilities of Israel, the United States, and their allies in the West and elsewhere collectively represent the most advanced military force in the world.

On its part, Iran has been using a mix of conventional and asymmetric warfare strategies to exert regional influence. As such, its allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria, signi-ficantly amplify Iran’s reach and strength. These groups enhance Iran’s capacity for proxy warfare.

Moreover, in case of a coordinated attack, Iran would face severe challenges in safeguarding its military, economic and human assets even though its proxy forces would allow it to maintain some retaliatory capability.

Economically, Iran would struggle as its oil infrastructure and exports would face disruption, but its experience with sanctions, black market operations, and self-reliance in key sectors would help it endure to some extent.

Civilian infrastructure would also be heavily impacted, but Iran’s civil defence measures and nationalistic mobilisation could sustain public morale. Although Iran would suffer significant losses, its asymmetric strategies, resilience and cyber warfare capacity would make a prolonged conflict costly for its opponents, deterring a swift resolution.

As for Pakistan, a military conflict in the region would have severe and destabilising effects in the domains of security, economy and diplomacy. The conflict would likely escalate border tensions, risk spillover violence, and inflame sectarian tensions within Pakistan.

Economically, soaring energy prices from disrupted Gulf oil supplies as well as trade disruptions, especially affecting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), would exacerbate Pakistan’s financial challenges, leading to inflation and power shortages.

A potential influx of Iranian refugees would strain Pakistan’s already limited resources, while navigating diplomatic pressures to take sides would complicate its relations with Iran, the US, Saudi Arabia and China. The war would force Pakistan to balance its foreign policy in a volatile regional environment, with the potential to disrupt its internal stability, economic growth and regional alliances.

To prevent a full-scale war, the United Nations should urgently facilitate direct dialogue, appoint a special envoy, and pass resolutions calling for restraint, while offering phased sanctions relief in exchange for Iran’s adherence to peace efforts.

Other bodies, like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the European Union (EU) and the Arab League, should use their leverage as well. By working together, these international bodies can use diplomacy, mediation and incentives to steer all parties towards a peaceful resolution to the fast escalating crisis.

Qamar Bashir
Islamabad

Published in Dawn, October 5th, 2024