THE recent Shanghai Cooperation Orga- nisation (SCO) summit in Pakistan has been touted by some as a diplomatic breakthrough, with the Indian foreign minister’s visit sparking speculation of a renewed dialogue between the two long-estranged neighbours. The stark reality is that the visit was not a sign of any thaw in relations, but a mere formality driven by the obligations of international diplomacy.

The real takeaway from the visit was not any newfound warmth between Pakistan and India, but rather the smooth and professional hosting of an international summit. The event was notable for what did not happen — the two countries avoided their usual combative rhetoric. Pakistan chose not to publicly raise the Kashmir issue, and while the visitor did touch upon cross-border terrorism, he stopped short of directly accusing Pakistan. For the first time in years, the summit unfolded without the customary volley of blame and counter-blame. However, this temporary calm was more a reflection of necessity than of rapprochement.

India’s motives for attending the summit were not grounded in any desire for reconciliation. Instead, New Delhi’s focus was strategic. India has long been seeking trade access to Central Asia, but Pakistan, citing the ongoing Kashmir dispute, has consistently refused to grant India transit trade rights. For Pakistan, this refusal is about more than just occupied Kashmir — it is about safeguarding its own economic ambitions in the region. Opening up to Indian trade would be a strategic misstep, allowing India to dominate Central Asia, a market Pakistan also covets.

Beyond trade, India’s participation in the summit was also driven by its desire to counter China’s growing influence in the region. As tensions between India and China escalate, India has no intention of allowing Beijing to dominate platforms like the SCO without competition. By attending, India ensured that China would not have a free rein to push its regional agenda. While Pakistan chose diplomatic restraint by not spotlighting Kashmir, India used the opportunity to reiterate its opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which passes through Azad Kashmir.

The SCO summit may have provided a brief diplomatic respite, but it is unlikely to change the long-standing realities of Pakistan-India relations. Until both sides find common ground, the diplomatic mirage of the SCO summit, mind you, will remain just that; a mirage.

Gulab Umid
Turbat

Published in Dawn, October 25th, 2024