OSLO: A group of scientists warned on Monday of the greatly underestimated risk of a collapse of ocean currents in the Atlantic which could have catastrophic consequences for the Nordic countries as the region’s leaders gathered in Iceland.

In an open letter addressed to the Nordic Council, which is meeting this week in Iceland’s capital Reykjavik, the scientists said they wanted to bring attention “to the serious risk of a major ocean circulation change in the Atlantic.” The “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation” (AMOC) is a complex system of ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream, which carries heat from warmer regions to the north and is therefore crucial to living conditions in the Arctic.

The collapse of the system — which according to a recent study has already weakened — is one of the tipping points that concern scientists because of cascading effects they could trigger. But there is no consensus on when this is likely to happen.

The sixth assessment report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), expressed “medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100.” However, the signatories of the open letter, argued that new research indicated that the risk had so far been “greatly underestimated,” and the “passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades.”

Published in Dawn, October 29th, 2024