HOW will the election of Donald Trump affect US-Pakistan relations? Let’s first clear up a myth. It is not true that Pakistan had good relations with the US when Trump was president. He wanted to get out of Afghanistan for which he sought former prime minister Imran Khan’s help in talking to the Taliban.

Khan was rewarded with a visit to Washington and exceptional public praise from Trump. But once the deal with the Taliban was done, Trump turned his back on Pakistan, leaving no imprint on the relationship.

Trump notices only issues of high public interest, which have political traction. The present state of US-Pakistan relations is not one of them, neither are its domestic dynamics. Trump will most likely continue with the Joe Biden policy of low-intensity engagement with Islamabad, marked neither by significant aid levels nor by sanctions, the two extremes between which the relationship oscillated for much of its history.

There was a search under Biden for a new balance in relations that best responds to the completely changed regional and geopolitical landscape, and the shifting US foreign policy that faces challenges at home and overseas. Rising powers abroad are curtailing America’s global primacy by staking a role in reformatting the global economic and strategic order.

At home, the politics and policy of issues like globalisation, China, big power relationships, alliances, and America’s ‘forever wars’ are being reshaped by Trump’s worldview, changing the way the US perceives and is perceived by the world.

Under Trump, the relationship will likely be handled by the State Department and Pentagon whose Pakistan policy has had four elements.

Trump’s approach will focus on what a state has to offer America.

The first has been a derivative of US policies towards China, India and Afghanistan. The US would like to limit China’s political and economic influence in Pakistan, and it also wants Islamabad to not undermine the centrality of India to its Indo-Pacific strategy. As for Afghanistan, its stability is key to the broader regional security including that of Pakistan.

The second element has been a direct US interest in Pakistan, focused on its economic weakness, potential for political instability, and the threat of extremism and regional insurgency to internal security, from which emerges America’s ultimate concern about Pakistan’s possible radicalisation or breakdown threatening the safety of its nuclear assets.

The third factor has been counterterrorism. Here, Pakistan is seen in many different roles: partner, target or victim. Washington needs Islamabad’s cooperation to act against the transnational terrorists who endanger the US and global security. It would also like Islamabad to deal with any militant threat against India and Pakistan’s own stability. Washington is willing to help where possible.

The fourth element is the developing US-Pakistan cooperation in the economic area, principally in energy, IT and agriculture. Investment sentiment remains cautiously hopeful. And the US continues to be the top destination of Pakistan’s exports.

The sum total of the above points to the need for engagement. What might impact it, however, is Trump’s thinking on certain critical policy areas: less military involvement abroad, decreased military aid, increased pressure on allies to contribute more to their defence, a rise in trade tariffs, and possibly a harder line on China. We do not know how it would play out. Biden’s policies had already de-emphasised military aid to Pakistan. The Trump presidency should have no practical effect here. But it is too early to tell whether tariffs would hit Pakistan. Under the last Trump presidency, they af­­­fected India, des­p­ite its crucial role in the Indo-Pacific strategy which Trump will likely continue.

We should not take Trump’s offer of help to solve the Kashmir dispute, which he made the last time, seriously. The offer had nothing to do with Kashmir. It was about himself. He wanted to please Pakistan and appear to his base as a popular world leader being looked up to by other countries to solve complex disputes.

Trump’s transactional approach will always focus on what a country has to offer America before he does anything for it. Pakistan has to ensure that its ties with the US are handled through quiet diplomacy, especially if they involve issues that incite public interest in the US negatively. That would invite Trump’s retribution.

Trump’s policies are not knowledge- or institution-based but personality-focused and politics-driven. They are a one-man show. He is at the centre of his own agenda that goes with the politics of the day. To quote The Guardian, Trump will basically “free-lance” his foreign policy. So be prepared for surprises.

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Research Fellow National University of Singapore.

Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2024