IT is often believed that engineering political stability is the solution to a nation’s economic and security challenges. The idea of this so-called stability is used to justify the suppression of dissent, stifling of political opposition, and the disregard for democratic principles and transparency in societies. Recent developments in Pakistan seem to prove this observation correct.

The ruling elite has a firm grip on power, and has successfully bypassed parliamentary integrity in its attempt to maintain ‘political stability’. The media often portrays serene images and photos and footage of cultural events in major cities, suggesting that all is well. Yet, sceptics argue that addressing the basis of Pakistan’s political turmoil is necessary for this manufactured calm to find its way to true stability.

Pakistan’s rulers have long lived under the delusion that they can consolidate their grip on power by manipulating parliament and the judiciary; in the process, they often sideline the consent and representation of political parties and rights movements. Such movements and parties are seen as peripheral because they seek certain rights and privileges in exchange for taking part in legislative business. The Balochistan National Party (BNP) of Sardar Akhtar Mengal and the National Party of Dr Abdul Malik are examples of this.

However, the rulers only consider the demands of such parties if their support is crucial for passing laws. The means employed to secure BNP’s votes for the passage of the 26th Constitutional Amendment is one recent example.

In their efforts to maintain ‘political stability’, the rulers have bypassed parliamentary integrity.

Since independence, power politics in Pakistan have always revolved around personalities. This has led to the entrenchment of dynastic politics, which not only weakens political and democratic institutions but is also heavily responsible for failures of governance. These dynasties resist the establishment only when excluded from power; mostly, though, they are not averse to collaborating with each other and sharing power. In this arrangement, the establishment’s influence has grown. Political dynasties remain content as long as their political and business interests are secured.

There is an undeniable nexus between power politics and the economy; power-sharing directly influences economic reforms in all sectors — ranging from agriculture and industry to services. Meanwhile, the challenges faced by marginalised groups and rights movements are linked to internal security, which is often overlooked by the ruling classes. The latter’s illusion of having secured political stability will remain an illusion until voices from the peripheries are accommodated.

Describing these movements and dissenting voices as having been tainted by foreign influence or being traitorous has not addressed the core issues; instead, actions by security institutions driven by such perceptions have compounded the challenges. The economy, particularly in terms of foreign investment, is still very fragile, and can be further affected by deterioration of the security situation.

Political instability in Balochistan and KP’s merged districts has triggered discontent, providing insurgents and terrorists the space to exploit local grievances. Data from the Pak Institute for Peace Studies on recent terrorist activities in the country highlights the concerning expansion of militant influence, especially in KP and Balochistan. In October alone, 100 lives were lost in 48 terrorist attacks — 35 in KP, and nine in Balochistan, and more minor incidents in Sindh and Punjab. These regions have become focal points for militant operations, and reflect a dangerous strategy by these militant groups to destabilise areas where operational freedom may be greater due to geographical or sociopolitical factors. Though less frequent, incidents in Punjab and Sindh signal efforts to expand influence beyond traditional strongholds.

The BLA’s recent vehicle-borne suicide attack targeting Chinese nationals in Karachi exemplifies this tactic, indicating an attempt to disrupt crucial economic partnerships. Similarly, militants from the TTP are reportedly pushing into Balochistan’s Pakhtun belt and parts of Punjab, including districts bordering KP such as Mianwali. This suggests a calculated plan to broaden their reach.

As militants attempt to regroup and to increase their violent tactics in KP, local communities have become very vocal about their fears. Protests have persisted for months since the Taliban’s resurgence in Swat and the surrounding areas. Residents, often supported by social and political groups, have organised rallies, gatherings, and jirgas to express their concern at the re-emergence of militant groups and the rising arc of violence in their areas. They have also been vocal about their distrust of the government and security forces, and have criticised their inability to ensure durable security. This growing disillusionment underscores the urgent need to adopt a more comprehensive approach to counter violence and public grievances.

The PTM’s jirga last month highlighted the growing frustration of marginalised communities with contentious state policies on counterterrorism, resource distribution, and political rights. Similarly, the presence of the Baloch Yakjehti Council is an indicator of the growing concern in Balochistan with the ruling elites’ management of provincial affairs.

Our ruling circles must broaden their political perspective to genuinely include peripheral political and rights movements, including those from Balochistan, KP, and Sindh, in the national discourse.

Many of the rights movements have appeared willing to negotiate and work within the existing political framework if respectfully approached by a government that has genuine intentions. A serious, inclusive dialogue could pave the way for meaningful reforms and reduce discontent. The ruling elite’s commitment to such an approach would signal a shift from superficial gestures to a more sustainable, participatory model of governance.

Given our rulers’ assertion that Pakistan is now on the path of stability and economic growth, there should be no hesitation on the government’s part to engage dissenting voices from Balochistan and KP. Sadly, our history is witness to the fact that whenever Pakistan appears to stabilise, the arrogance of the power elites tends to rise. This pushes the country back onto a slippery slope. The post-9/11 economic growth, for example, eventually dissipated due to Gen Musharraf’s misadventures in Balochistan and the creation of a judicial crisis. Power circles must rethink their approach.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, November 10th, 2024