As President-elect Donald Trump picks people to staff his second administration, Washington-based scholars of US-South Asia relations are weighing the potential impact of these appointments on ties with Pakistan.

These observers predict that the Trump administration’s foreign policy focus will likely prioritise countering China’s influence in South Asia, a shift that could present challenges for Pakistan as the geopolitical landscape evolves.

Historically, Islamabad has sought to be treated independently by Washington, rather than viewed through the lens of India or Afghanistan.

However, with the incoming administration, the focus will shift once again — this time to China. This shift does not guarantee that Pakistan will be treated independently; instead, the US may continue to approach it through the lens of its competition with Beijing.

In interviews with Dawn, several scholars noted that the new team includes individuals who advocate for a stronger alliance with India, which could pose potential challenges for Pakistan.

They suggest that Trump’s choices, which includes figures like Senator Marco Rubio and Congressman Mike Waltz, signal a clear shift toward strengthening the US-India alliance, likely at the expense of Pakistan.

Joshua White, a former senior advisor to the White House on South Asian Affairs, warns that the nominees’ past experiences and concerns about China will likely influence their stance on Pakistan too.

“Trump’s senior appointees will likely be quite skeptical — if not hostile — toward deepening US-Pakistan ties, given their experiences in Afghanistan, their valuation of the US-India relationship, and their concerns over Pakistan’s relationship with China,” he said.

Rubio, a strong advocate for countering China, recently introduced legislation aimed at elevating India’s status to that of a key US ally, reflecting the growing strategic defence and technology cooperation between the two nations. Rubio’s long-standing stance on South Asia, including efforts to limit US assistance to Pakistan over its support for Kashmiris’ struggle for freedom, further emphasises the policy direction.

Shuja Nawaz, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Centre, stresses that Pakistan’s role in US strategy remains largely confined to counter-terrorism, particularly in Afghanistan. “Pakistan’s utility to the US is primarily in counter-terrorism. It’s unlikely to rank high in terms of positive engagement,” Nawaz said.

The anticipated nomination of Mike Waltz as national security adviser is expected to further tilt the balance toward US-India defence cooperation. Waltz, a strong proponent of military collaboration with India, is also the co-chair of the Indian Caucus in Congress. He is expected to push for deepening the US-India partnership, especially as both countries desire to counter growing security challenges from China.

Hassan Abbas of the National Defence University in Washington, notes that while it is still early to fully assess the direction of Trump’s foreign policy, America’s national interests will ultimately drive decisions.

He acknowledges the growing influence of Pakistani diaspora activists in the US, but advises Islamabad to broaden its engagement with Washington beyond security issues as US-India relations continue to deepen.

Uzair Younus of The Asia Group agrees that Trump’s appointees, particularly Rubio and Waltz, are likely to maintain a hardline stance toward Pakistan. Younus also points to Rubio’s history of criticizing leaders who leverage anti-American sentiment for domestic political gain, a stance that could hurt PTI’s efforts to solicit Trump’s support to get Imran Khan released.

Furthermore, Trump’s domestic reforms, such as those led by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), are expected to facilitate economic cooperation between the US and India, easing the path for Indian businesses. The inclusion of Kash Patel, an Indian-American attorney, in Trump’s administration is being seen as an indication.

“There may be factions in the Trump administration that would like to see the US pressure Pakistan on various domestic and foreign policy issues—from the status of Imran Khan to Kashmir. But that would require sustained attention from Washington, and I think it is more likely that the administration is preoccupied with Iran, China, border challenges with Mexico, and a host of other priorities,” Joshua White said.

Meanwhile, Shuja Nawaz warned that Pakistan may not be high on the list of positive priorities of the Trump administration.

Waltz served in Afghanistan and will likely carry the memories of having lost comrades in the eastern region where the Haqqani Network operated, he said.

“He also might further subscribe to the Biden administration view that Pakistan is now in the Chinese lap,” Nawaz said, adding: “Pakistan will need to show that it can improve its economy to garner US support via the International Financial Institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and ADB.”

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024