While public policies are mainly focused on achieving economic stability with subdued growth in various countries, most governments have lost the recent elections or substantial support of their voters.

Notwithstanding exceptions, the anti-incumbency wave has defied traditional trends, say eminent US poll observers and political scientists.

The outcome of the US elections was no exception. “The elites cannot come to grips with how alienated they are from the country,” said Newt Gingrich, former House speaker and informal advisor to Donald Trump.

Analysts also noted that economic statistics did not mirror what ordinary voters felt and that the voters did not want what economists thought was best.

Analysts call for inclusive dialogue to drive meaningful reforms as anti-incumbency gains momentum globally

“We have reached a sort of pendulum aspect of democracy because people are paying so much more attention to what is going on now, and people’s patience is lessened for the incumbent party,” says Todd Belt, a political scientist at George Washington University.

“The working class is angry, and they have a reason to be angry,” says Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent. “We are living in an economy now where the people on the top are doing phenomenally well, while 60 per cent of our people are living paycheque to paycheque. What Trump did well in his campaign, notes Mr Bernie, was to say: “I feel your pain. I know that you are hurting, and I have an explanation.”

Apart from societal forces, some think Trump’s victory owed, in part, to Republican strategic decisions and lack of clarity in the rival democratic camp. Former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi said if Joe Biden had got out earlier, the result would have been different. A senior Kamala Harris advisor, David Plouffe, maintained that Mr Biden had dealt the Democrat’s presidential candidate an unwinnable hand.

Our system working for the interest of a few at the cost of many is now being questioned by socially conscious citizens

Eminent analysts say the anti-incumbency drive has spread across not just the United States but several other democracies. The British Labour Party swept out Conservative rule in July, self-professed ‘anarcho-capitalist’ Javier Milei triumphed in Argentina last November and incumbent parties, some long dominant, lost ground this year in countries like India, Japan, South Africa, and South Korea.

Less than a week after the US elections, Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth of Mauritius, who was seeking a second five-year term, lost to his main rival, Navin Ramgoolam, leader of the Alliance of Change coalition.

The shocks to the economy over the past five years “has turned incumbency from an asset into a liability,” says John V. Kane, a political scientist at New York University. “Swing voters may not know best policies, if any, to fix the situation, but one thing they can be certain about is that they want the situation to change,” he said. The citizens’ growing social and political awareness, as demonstrated in the recent elections, raises hope for the future of democracy.

In a democracy, a nation’s people rule through their genuine representatives, who are mandated to implement the programmes and policies of political parties approved by the voters. In Pakistan, a hybrid democracy and arbitrary rules working for the interest of a few at the cost of many are being increasingly questioned by socially conscious citizens, particularly the middle-income group and the youth, with workers demanding living wages instead of minimum wages.

“Our governments aren’t welfare-driven as much as they are profit-driven,” says analyst Moona Khan. Security Analyst Muhammad Amir Rana elaborates on the idea, saying, “There is an undeniable nexus between power politics and the economy; power-sharing directly influences economic reforms in all sectors — ranging from agriculture and industry to services.”

Landless tenants are reportedly resisting the takeover of 4,193 kanals of land in tehsil Arifwala, Punjab, by a corporate farming company, saying they were the fourth generation of farmers cultivating the land legally since 1928. The cancellation of their lease and transfer of their land to a private company is under litigation in court. If this land is to be leased out, farmers argue, they have the first right to their land.

“Poverty and violence are likely to continue as no concrete and sustained measures to improve the situation are visible,” writes retired lieutenant general Talat Masood in a The Express Tribune article titled ‘Seeking a better future’.

With the reach of insurgents/terrorists expanding, as demonstrated by the blast at Quetta Railway Station, analysts at Dawn suggest instead of short-term military operations, long-term strategies are required to address the poor socioeconomic situation that fuels separatist sentiments in Balochistan. Furthermore, the province’s popular leaders must be allowed, through an unhindered democratic process, to formulate and execute public policy.

They note that many of the rights movements have appeared willing to negotiate and work within the existing political framework. They have stressed the need for a serious, inclusive dialogue that could pave the way for meaningful reforms, reduce discontent and lead to a more sustainable, participatory model of governance.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 18th, 2024