Contrary to the widespread belief that agriculture is a primary contributor to the smog crisis, recent government reports reveal that crop residue burning (primarily rice stubble) accounts for only 3.9 per cent of smog in Lahore and around 11pc in Punjab — several times lower than the contributions from the transport and industrial sectors. The data clearly points to where the government should direct its efforts and scarce resources for greater impact, rather than unfairly scapegoating farmers.

As smog intensity and spread continue to rise each year in the country, in-situ burning of rice stubble by farmers in October and November to clear their fields for the next (Rabi) crop — wheat, oilseeds, potatoes, vegetables — has been declining in rice-growing areas due to various factors.

First, agricultural mechanisation is on the rise, supported by provincial government subsidies. Sales data indicates a growing use of zero-tillage drills, super seeders, and rotavators for sowing wheat. These implements enable farmers to sow wheat without burning rice stubble.

Second, the steep rise in electricity and gas tariffs has pushed various industries to shift to biomass as a more affordable energy source, particularly for boiler fuel. To meet this demand, tractor-driven balers that gather and compact leftover rice straw (after harvesting) into bales — typically ranging from 50-500kg— are gaining traction in rice-growing districts.

Crop residue burning accounts for only 3.9pc of smog in Lahore and around 11pc in Punjab

Third, the availability of half-feed rice harvesters has surged over the past two years. These not only reduce harvest losses but also leave the entire rice plant intact (unlike combine harvesters, which chop it up) after grain threshing.

Such rice straw is easier to collect — either manually or by a baler — and holds good economic value due to its versatile uses in industry and rural areas including crop mulching, animal bedding, and cooking fuel. It is also being used as a substitute for wheat straw to feed livestock and its demand has recently increased due to the reduction in maize (autumn crop) acreage in several districts.

Fourth, rice farmers are gradually shifting from long-duration basmati varieties (130-140 days) to short-duration varieties like kissan basmati and hybrids (90-110 days). This shift allows for higher cropping intensity, reduced input costs, and better adaptation to climate change. These short-duration varieties mature in October, well before the temperature inversions and low wind speeds of November, which intensify smog.

Among all sectors contributing to smog, the agriculture sector holds the greatest potential for achieving impactful results quickly with minimum investment. However, so far, the government’s approach mostly relies on command-and-control measures — imposing fines and registering first information reports — in a largely reactive, fire-fighting mode.

These efforts amount to little more than chasing shadows, as government departments lack the capacity and resources to effectively monitor millions of acres of rice fields spread across dozens of districts. We need to acknowledge that farmers resort to burning crop residue due to lack of balers, coupled with labour shortages for manual collection and additional costs incurred on it.

Unfortunately, the government has yet to recognise that Pakistan, like many other countries, is gradually transitioning to a circular bioeconomy — one that reuses agricultural waste to lower carbon emissions and support renewable processes. It requires a significant expansion in crop residue collection, including rice straw and maize stalk, which is currently done on a limited scale.

This can only be realised by heavily promoting tractor-driven balers through subsidies, particularly aimed at small and medium enterprises interested to embark upon the market-based solutions to reduce smog.

Regrettably, in the recently developed Roadmap for Smog Mitigation in Lahore (2024-25), the Punjab government focuses solely on providing 5,000 subsidised super seeders, while completely overlooking balers. Policymakers failed to understand that a super seeder is only for wheat sowing and is not applicable to other Rabi crops — especially large-scale potato planting in Lahore and the adjacent Sahiwal division.

Moreover, super seeders are primarily effective in rice fields harvested using a combine harvester. It cannot be used in fields harvested with a half-feed rice harvester unless the rice straw is first removed, either manually or with a baler, or alternatively first chopped using a disc harrow.

There is another side of the story: the adverse effects of smog on crops, an issue that has not received adequate attention from political and policy circles. Agriculture might be the unique sector that is both a contributor to and a victim of smog.

During smoggy months, reduced sunlight hampers photosynthesis, which leads to stunted plant growth, high susceptibility to insect and pest attack, flower bud shedding, and yellowing of leaves. Smog contains a range of pollutants and gases — ground-level ozone (O3), nitrous oxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide — that negatively affect both the health, yields, and quality of Rabi crops. Poor germination of wheat due to smog is a challenge that directly affects the country’s largest staple crop.

While addressing smog has never been so important and more urgent, it is equally essential to evaluate its detrimental effects on agriculture and to implement necessary policy measures to preserve the sector’s productivity and resilience.

Khalid Wattoo is a farmer and a development professional, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former Associate Professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad

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Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 18th, 2024