FOR all the speculation during last month’s SCO summit about a thaw in Pakistan-India relations, there has been no melting of the ice between the two neighbours. Instead, subsequent developments indicate the long-standing diplomatic impasse persists and may even have deepened.

The speculation was sparked by the visit to Islamabad last month of S. Jaishankar to attend the meeting of the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the first by an Indian foreign minister in over a decade. But he made clear ahead of the trip that no bilateral engagement was envisioned. Nor did Islamabad seek a meeting on the sidelines. The media noise over the customary exchange of handshakes and pleasantries did not obscure the reality that Jaishankar’s 24-hour stay did nothing to break the diplomatic deadlock — and wasn’t intended to.

In fact, overtures to New Delhi by former prime minister and head of the ruling party Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz, elicited no response from the Indian government. Nawaz Sharif said he saw Jaishankar’s visit as a positive sign that might lead to improved relations and hoped the two countries would restore sports and trade ties. Maryam Nawaz publicly called for “climate diplomacy” with India to deal with the growing challenge of smog on both sides of the Punjab border. This was met by silence from New Delhi. But the chief minister of Indian Punjab ridiculed Maryam’s claim that smog from the Indian side was reaching Lahore.

Expectations that sports would help to pave the way for a thaw did not materialise. Although cricket diplomacy has played a part in the past to ease tensions and bring the two countries closer, not so this time. Despite informally conveyed urgings by Pakistani officials, India announced it would not send its cricket team to play in Pakistan for the eight-nation Champions Trophy, which Pakistan will host in February/ March 2025. The Indian cricket board apparently cited security concerns for its decision. For their part, Pakistani officials rejected the Indian suggestion to play their matches in Dubai or elsewhere and ruled out any ‘hybrid solution’. The row continues.

Recent developments are not encouraging for India-Pakistan diplomatic re-engagement.

Meanwhile, to add to disputes between the two countries, in late August, New Delhi formally asked Islamabad for a review of the Indus Waters Treaty. The 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has for over six decades survived wars, confrontations and tensions to provide a framework that governs the sharing and management of trans-border rivers. The fate of the treaty may now be at risk due to India’s insistence on modifying it on grounds of what it calls “fundamental and unforeseen change” in circumstances as well as security concerns.

The latest communication follows an earlier one in January 2023, when India notified Islamabad of its intention to amend the treaty’s dispute settlement provisions. According to Indian media reports, the latest one includes India’s concerns over issues such as “demographic changes, environmental challenges, and the need to accelerate clean energy development”. Islamabad responded by a terse statement expressing willingness to discuss any concerns in the relevant body, the joint Indus Waters Commission, while calling on India to comply with the treaty. The two countries have disagreed in recent years over the treaty’s dispute settlement mechanism; India boycotted a court of arbitration hearing in January 2023 at the Hague on Indian hydroelectric projects on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers disputed by water-stressed Pakistan.

These developments do not create a propitious climate for India-Pakistan diplomatic re-engagement. But the biggest obstacle is India’s obdurate refusal to discuss the Kashmir dispute. Relations, in fact, were ruptured in August 2019 when India illegally annexed, bifurcated and absorbed the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian union — in violation and defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. Formal dialogue and the peace process were suspended by India long before this. But Delhi’s 2019 action, accompanied by a sweeping set of repressive measures, prompted Pakistan to suspend trade and downgrade diplomatic ties by recalling its high commissioner.

The Modi government’s post-2019 actions in J&K only intensified tensions with Pakistan. Ignoring Islamabad’s protests, it undertook a slew of far-reaching legal, demographic, and electoral changes in occupied Kashmir aimed at disempowering Kashmiri Muslims. This further vitiated the regional climate and left ties more fraught. In a bid to consolidate and ‘legitimise’ its August 2019 action, the Modi government allowed elections to be held to the J&K assembly in September/ October — after a decade — but only after truncating the powers and authority of the ‘elected’ government by substantially empowering the lieutenant-governor, nominated by Delhi. This was opposed by all Kashmiri parties and showed the Modi government had no intention to cede central control of J&K. The outcome of the election was a rebuke to the BJP and rejection of its 2019 action that robbed the state of even its nominal autonomy.

BJP’s hopes that the election would end the debate over J&K’s status were dashed. Another setback for the Modi government came when the newly elected assembly met and adopted a resolution calling for restoration of the state’s pre-2019 special status. Opposing this in a rowdy session, BJP lawmakers clashed with other legislators and had to be expelled from the chamber for disrupting the proceedings. Responding to the assembly’s demand, Prime Minister Modi declared no power in the world could restore J&K’s partial autonomy and that he had “buried the wall of Article 370 in the graveyard”.

Against this backdrop, formidable difficulties persist in the path of normalisation of ties between India and Pakistan. India’s refusal to even discuss Kashmir is a major impediment to resumption of any dialogue. Indian leaders claim they have ‘settled’ the Kashmir dispute and there is nothing to negotiate with Pakistan. In August, Jaishankar declared the era of “uninterrupted dialogue” with Pakistan is over … So far as J&K is concerned, Article 370 is done”. The Modi government has shown no interest in resuming talks with Islamabad even on other issues, including trade, preferring to maintain a strategic freeze on relations with Pakistan. It has apparently concluded that this only hurts Pakistan and not India. This makes the outlook for Pakistan-India relations uncertain as well as bleak.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, November 18th, 2024