AFTER several years of relative calm, the Syrian civil war has begun to heat up again, with Idlib-based rebel fighters reaching the city of Aleppo. The fresh offensive comes at a time of great strife in the Middle East, and unless there is a peaceful resolution to this conflict, the flames of war will once again consume Syria, and spread to regional states. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an outfit linked to Al Qaeda, launched the assault on Nov 27, and reports indicate they have made swift progress, with Syrian government forces suffering considerable losses. Interestingly, the fresh hostilities were initiated on the day the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire took effect, bringing some calm to the Lebanese front. Syria has been largely quiet since 2020 when an arrangement between Russia and Iran, which support Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and Turkiye, which backs the rebels, effectively froze the conflict. Now, it is being reignited at a time when the whole region is on knife’s edge, and conflict in one theatre can quickly spread to adjacent battlegrounds.

The rebels obviously know what they are doing, for they struck at a time when Hezbollah, which played a key role in defending the Assad government, has suffered major setbacks, while Iran and Russia are embroiled in their own conflicts, the former against Israel, the latter managing its Ukraine war. However, it must be asked why the well-armed and organised rebels chose to strike the Syrian government at a time when the Palestinian people are suffering merciless violence at the hands of Israel. Surely they could have used their capabilities to send a message to Israel in solidarity with Palestine. But their guns are firmly trained on Mr Assad’s forces, and his foreign backers. In fact, further instability in Syria will only help Israel, as the government in Damascus is a central pillar of the Iran-backed ‘Axis of Resistance’. All regional states and international powers must also consider that if Al Qaeda’s ideological allies establish a strong foothold in Syria, it will fuel transnational terrorism. In this respect, the violent rise and equally violent fall of the self-styled Islamic State group should be remembered. Efforts need to be made to bring the non-violent Syrian opposition to the table with the Assad government, and defeat extremist forces that threaten the entire region.

Published in Dawn, December 2nd, 2024