WASHINGTON: Advisers to Donald Trump publicly and privately are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to an analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to the US president-elect.

The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking Nato membership for Ukraine off the table.

Trump’s advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.

Trump repeatedly pledged during his election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of his Jan 20 inauguration, if not before then, but has yet to say how.

President-elect pledged during his election campaign to end the conflict within 24 hours of his Jan 20 inauguration

Analysts and former national security officials voice grave doubts Trump can fulfill such a pledge because of the conflict’s complexity.

Taken together, however, his advisers’ statements suggest the potential contours of a Trump peace plan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, facing manpower shortages and growing territorial losses, has indicated that he may be open to negotiations.

While still intent on Nato membership, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to regaining some of its occupied territories. But Trump may find Putin unwilling to engage, analysts and former US officials said, as he has the Ukrainians on the back foot and may have more to gain by pursuing further land grabs.

“Putin is in no hurry,” said Eugene Rumer, a former top US intelligence analyst on Russia now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. The Russian leader, he said, shows no readiness to drop his conditions for a truce and talks, including Ukraine abandoning its Nato quest and surrendering the four provinces Putin claims as part of Russia but does not fully control, a demand rejected by Kyiv.

Putin, Rumer said, likely will bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, concessions Trump may offer to lure him to the negotiating table. This news agency reported in May that Putin was ready to halt the war with a negotiated ceasefire that recognised current front lines but was ready to fight on if Kyiv and the West did not respond.

Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally seized it from Ukraine in 2014 and has since taken about 80pc of the Donbas — which is comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk — as well as more than 70pc of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and small parts of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.

More than one plan

As of last week, Trump had yet to convene a central working group to flesh out a peace plan, according to four advisers who requested anonymity to describe private deliberations. Rather, several advisers have pitched ideas among themselves in public forums and — in some cases — to Trump, they said. Ultimately, a peace agreement will likely depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy, the advisers said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was not possible to comment on individual statements without having an idea of the plan as a whole. Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt noted that Trump has said he “will do what is necessary to restore peace and rebuild American strength and deterrence on the world stage.”

Published in Dawn, December 5th, 2024