On December 7, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was brought to a swift end, closing the chapter on over half a century of dynastic rule as well as the Arab Spring.

The Assad regime was brought down in a lightning offensive led by a rebel coalition under the command of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former member of al-Qaeda and now the face of the revolution.

Syria is currently gripped by euphoria over Assad’s ouster and its people are enjoying their newfound freedom. However, this calm and happiness will likely not last going into the new year.

The country is split with different actors holding swathes of territory. External powers with conflicting interests back some of these groups and actors. The risk of a renewed conflict is very real.

It is also clear that this event has played in Washington and Tel Aviv’s favour, as Iran has lost a key ally in the region, while Russia has lost its only Arab ally.

Israel has also seized more territory beyond the already occupied Golan Heights area on the Syrian border with impunity and struck Syrian military targets in Damascus.

Assad may be gone, but there is a clear and present danger of a new conflict brewing in the country in the new year.

Syria’s new leaders announced this week that they had agreed with the country’s rebel groups on their dissolution and integration under the defence ministry.

However, absent from the meeting were representatives of the US-backed, Kurdish-led forces that control swathes of Syria’s northeast.

Qasim Moini, a member of Dawn’s editorial team, told Dawn.com that he foresees “immense bloodshed and total anarchy” in Iraq, Lebanon and even Jordan.

Damascus has fallen

The rebels capturing Damascus marked a turning point for Syria, which had been shattered by more than 13 years of war which turned cities to rubble, killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced millions to flee abroad as refugees.

When Syrian anti-government demonstrators first took to the streets on March 15, 2011, they could scarcely have imagined their protests would turn into a complex war entangling rebels and outside forces.

At least 384,000 people were killed, including more than 116,000 civilians, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said in 2020.

The war left cities and villages in ruins, shattered the economy and displaced more than 11 million people internally and abroad, with many seeking refuge in neighbouring countries and Europe.

By November 30, during the new offensive, the city of Aleppo fell to a rebel alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — the biggest challenge to the regime in years. A week later, the rebels seized the key central city of Homs.

Seizing Homs, a key crossroads between the capital and the Mediterranean, would cut off Damascus from the coastal stronghold of Assad’s minority Alawite sect, and from a naval base and air base of his Russian allies there.

A day later, on December 8, the regime collapsed, with Assad fleeing the country to Russia and a transition government being installed. According to the former president, his escape to Russia was not by choice, but rather a direct order from Moscow.

The Russian military base in Hmeimim that Assad fled to came “under intensified attack by drone strikes” and “with no viable means of leaving the base, Moscow requested that the base’s command arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia”, he said in his first statement since the capital fell.

Euphoria has gripped Syria in the days since Assad fled, with students returning to university en masse and celebrating a new era of independence. “The atmosphere is extraordinary. Everyone is happy — look at how joyful people are,” said medical student Rinad Abdallah, 18.

According to Anadolu, the first flight between Damascus and Aleppo successfully landed on December 18, showing that life in Syria had somewhat returned to normal.

Meanwhile, in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster, the Syrian pound began to make a recovery, Syrians told AFP.

“In every other country, the currency falls when the regime falls. But here in Syria, it seems the opposite applies,” jeweller Raghid Mansur said.

Things seem to be looking up, but how long will it last?

A new civil war?

With Damascus falling to a broad coalition of rebels, Syria is fragmented with different factions in control of different areas of the country. Despite the presence of the transitional government, the lack of centralised leadership heightens the risk of a new conflict breaking out.

With the civil war over, HTS holds the territory in the centre, west and southwest; the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hold land in the east, and the Turkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) holds land along the northern border.

“Syria is an absolute mess right now,” said Moini. “There are multiple proxy groups backed by conflicting foreign actors. There are over 30 factions within the rebel coalition.

“They could fight each other for territory,” he warned.

Reuters reported that Hadi al-Bahra, head of the Syrian National Coalition that grouped opponents of Bashar al-Assad during the civil war, said on December 19 that Syria’s transitional government should be credible and “not exclude any party or be based on sectarianism”.

“Logistics should be worked out and freedom of speech should be guaranteed,” he added.

All the while, Israel seized territory in the south far beyond the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressing hopes of doubling the population in the annexed territory.

“The strengthening of the Golan is that of the State of Israel and it is particularly important at this time,” Netanyahu said on December 15. “We will continue to establish ourselves there, develop it and settle there.”

Similarly, UN envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen has expressed concern about escalation between the SDF and SNA in the northeast, given Turkiye’s designation of Kurdish armed factions as “terrorists”.

However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that America made “direct contact” with HTS and its leadership — despite them being designated terrorists — to urge a peaceful transition of power in the aftermath of the revolution.

Whether this will happen remains to be seen.

Once the dust settles, the chance of any of these groups resuming hostilities, be it of their own volition or on behalf of an external actor, is high. Pedersen has already expressed concerns about conflict between the SDF and SNA, with plenty of historical tension between Turks and Kurds.

Additionally, with so many factions within the coalition itself, there is also a potential for exclusion from the transition process, parties coming to loggerheads and the outbreak of violence.

As an example, the SDF was, according to King’s College London’s Professor Michael Clarke, “the West’s main partner in fighting Islamic State (ISIS)”. Jolani’s ranks may have former ISIS fighters who fought the SDF and want some retribution.

On December 23, Jolani, convening a meeting of the armed rebel factions said the new authorities would “absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control”. That also applied to the SDF, he said.

SDF spokesman Farhad Shami said the question of his group’s integration into the national armed forces “should be discussed directly”. He did not dismiss the possibility, saying that doing so would strengthen “the whole of Syria”. Shami added that his forces prefer “dialogue with Damascus to resolve all questions”.

Though armed groups have agreed to disband and be integrated into the defence ministry, there may be some groups who will not obey that order.

Waiting in the wings

Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, real name Ahmad Al-Sharaa, emerged as the face of the revolution after Assad’s ouster. Though a “shadowy figure who kept out of the public eye” according to Reuters, he “is the most recognisable of Syria’s triumphant insurgents”.

However, his history as a jihadist is a cause for concern, as HTS is a rebrand of Al Nusra Front, which was allied with Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). These two groups would combine and become the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

According to Stanford University’s ‘Mapping Militants Project’ (MMP), which traces the origins and evolution of armed groups across the world, Jolani was initially a member of AQI before being sent by Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi — the former head of AQI and ISIS — to start up a chapter for the organisation in Syria.

Al Nusra came into being between 2011 and 2012, acting as the organisation’s chapter in Syria. However, in 2013, Al Baghdadi “claimed, without consulting Al-Nusra or Al Qaeda, that Al-Nusra was to be considered the Syrian affiliate of the Islamic State of Iraq (AQI),” MMP states in their profile.

In 2016, Al Qaeda and Nusra Front split, with Jolani issuing a video statement announcing that Al Nusra would change its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front of the Conquest of Syria) and unify ranks with other mainstream fighters in Syria.

“We decided to stop operating under the banner of Al Nusra and to set up a new front, called Jabhat Fateh al-Sham,” said Jolani. He vowed the new group would “have no links whatsoever with foreign parties”. MMP states that the groups split due to HTS’ deviation from Al Qaeda’s ideology and their tilt towards fighting a nationalist struggle.

Mina Al-Lami, writing for the BBC, notes that the split, though justified as a move rooted in pragmatism, “signalled Jolani’s strategy to position HTS as a dominant and politically viable force in Syria”.

However, despite being termed a “moderate jihadist”, his prior history as an Al Qaeda man has drawn much scrutiny. In 2013, the US placed a $10 million bounty on him, declaring him a terrorist. The US Embassy in Syria published a wanted poster in 2017, with the image of Jolani reading “stop this terrorist”.

Moini described Jolani as a “minor character” and said he was “catapulted … into pole position”.

“He was still around over the past five or six years, but his rise was meteoric,” Moini said, likening it to that of Al Baghdadi. However, Moini said that the threat lies less with Jolani himself and more with the people around him.

While Jolani may have rebranded himself as a moderate, he likely has followers from when he was Al Nusra chief who lacked his restraint.

“There are far more vicious characters waiting in the wings who want to expand their own version of Islam,” Moini said. “There is also major potential for an internal sectarian conflict.”

“Jolani claims they are simply Syrian nationalists that will be tolerant of all minorities,” Clarke told Sky News. “But they explicitly rule out democracy because that takes legitimacy away from God … so the best we can hope for from HTS would be some kind of ‘benevolent dictatorship’ with a tolerance of Syria’s patchwork of different peoples,” he said.

“But the chances of them being able to bring everyone together under a banner of Syrian patriotism is not great — so I suspect they won’t hold together for long.”

ISIS was infamous for its brutality, with an essay published in The Cairo Review of Global Affairs detailing acts such as summary executions, sexual slavery and widespread child abuse carried out against populations under ISIS control. Even some of the group’s supporters began turning on it. For a group with that reputation to resurface in such an uncertain and chaotic environment would be catastrophic.

As observed in Afghanistan, countries fraught with internal conflict provide a conducive environment for terrorist groups to re-emerge.

ISIS took advantage of the power vacuum created by the disengagement of the Afghan Taliban and the drawdown of US forces in the country between 2019 and 2020 to operate freely and gain more power. A similar situation could be observed here with more extreme actors.

Given the diverse religious landscape of Syria, there is a high likelihood that sectarian conflict will break out, as well as the spread of violence against Christians and members of other faiths. Already, religious extremists have burned a Christmas tree near Hama on the eve of Christmas.

On December 24, Christmas Eve, hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets in Christian areas of Damascus to protest the burning of a Christmas tree near Hama in central Syria, AFP journalists witnessed.

The protests erupted after a video spread on social media showing hooded fighters setting fire to a Christmas tree in the Christian-majority town of Suqaylabiyah, near Hama.

A demonstrator who gave his name as Georges told AFP he was protesting “injustice against Christians”.

“If we’re not allowed to live our Christian faith in our country, as we used to, then we don’t belong here anymore,” he said.

In a video posted to social media, a religious leader from the new Syrian leadership addressed residents, claiming those who torched the tree were “not Syrian” and promising they would be punished. “The tree will be restored and lit up by tomorrow morning”, a leadership figure in the video said.

Meanwhile, the Assad family is part of the Alawite sect and given the animosity that built up during dynastic rule, Alawites across Syria fear backlash.

Fabrice Balanche, a Middle East expert from France’s University Lumiere Lyon 2, estimated the Alawite community’s numbers at around 1.7 million, or around 9 per cent of the Syrian population when speaking to AFP.

An anonymous university student in Latakia told AFP on December 16, “[When Assad fell] it felt like a dream … it was the first time I felt I really loved my country. [But] “many people like me from the Alawite minority are worried.

“Because those who liberated us are not one unified group, they include factions with a dark history,” she told AFP.

“The Alawites were very close to Bashar’s regime” and were its “Praetorian Guard”, Balanche told AFP. “Their association with the regime risks provoking collective revenge against them — even more so as Islamists consider them heretics.”

When asked if America — despite the bounty — may be backing HTS directly, Moini said “Anything is possible”.

Links to Washington

This raises the question of whether the rebel offensive was an intentional effort by the US to unravel Iran’s sphere of influence in the Middle East.

When Assad was toppled, Tehran lost a key regional ally while Moscow lost its only Arab partner — two of America’s sworn enemies were dealt a heavy blow at once.

Iran seemingly had the most to lose from this revolution. Aside from losing Assad, supply routes to Hezbollah were disrupted and their embassy in Damascus was ransacked. Additionally, Israel seized more Syrian territory. All of these bode ill for Tehran.

Moreover, Assad’s removal has allowed US troops to operate more freely within Syria. Al Jazeera reported on December 9 that the US had resumed airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, with US Central Command (Centcom) stating that it had struck over 75 targets.

“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” Al Jazeera reported quoting Centcom Commander General Michael Erik Kurilla. “All organisations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”

Al Jolani’s reemergence — or meteoric rise as Moini says — and success may look like it came out of nowhere, but the sheer speed with which Syria fell suggests the involvement of the US.

The American bounty on Jolani arguably provided the US with the plausible deniability it needs to avoid provoking a response from Iran or Russia. However, that bounty was lifted on December 20, arguably making their relationship open.

What’s more, Blinken announcing the establishment of contact with HTS suggests that the US recognises them as the de facto governing authority in Syria.

On the other hand, the Council of Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank, wrote that Russia, Iran and Hezbollah did not send any “significant support” during the rebel offensive.

Russia is heavily engaged in its war in Ukraine, while Iran is preoccupied with backing its proxies against Israel and struggling under the weight of US-imposed sanctions amid international scrutiny.

A renewed civil conflict could potentially spill over into neighbouring Iraq, which is governed by the Iran-aligned Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani.

“Regardless of whoever is in charge in Iraq, Iran is definitely the biggest power broker in the region,” Moini said. he added that attacking Baghdad would be the next logical step for America and its allies to unravel Iran’s sphere of influence, since it is one of Iran’s few remaining allies in the region.

When asked if Iraq could spiral into conflict and fall anytime soon, Moini replied, “I don’t think it will happen just yet.”

What awaits Syria in 2025?

As Moini said, the region will see a resurgence of bloodshed and anarchy once the euphoria of revolution and the relative calm subsides. The presence of multiple proxy groups and so many armed factions in the country makes the chance of conflict even higher, especially considering that some of the groups are backed by actors with conflicting goals.

Additionally, uncertainty arises surrounding Jolani, as little is known about him and his past does not paint a reassuring picture. Though he has pledged to protect Syrian minorities like Christians and Alawites, whether he acts on this promise has yet to be seen. Despite this uncertainty, it is evident that the US and its allies have confidence in this new regime.

This tension is further exacerbated by the possibility of more extreme elements surrounding Jolani, who may break away from his more moderate stance in pursuit of a more extreme form of politics, maybe even violent ones.

The US had the most to gain from the fall of Damascus, as they not only resolved a 13-year-old problem but have established good relations with the de facto authority in Syria. They have also dealt Russia and Iran heavy blows, which geopolitically works in their favour.

However, the risk of a broader regional conflict is ever present, as toppling the government in Baghdad would offer America and its allies — specifically Israel — a clear shot at Tehran. “Israel is the regional policeman after all,” Moini said.

The situation is steeped in uncertainty and the stakes are extremely high due to the ongoing conflict involving Israel, Iran, Yemen and Iranian proxies. Syria may be celebrating now, but it is only a matter of time until violence once again rears its head.

Header image: A burnt billboard featuring the likeness of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. — Anadolu