PARIS: Global coal consumption is expected to hit a record high this year and stay near that level until 2027 as strong demand in Asia outpaces declines in the US and Europe, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

Global coal demand is forecast to be 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, with Chinese demand expected to be nearly a third higher than the rest of the world, the agency said in a report.

The expected jump in demand would come at a time when the carbon-heavy resource has fallen to 35 per cent of the global power mix, its lowest level, as strong growth in renewable power supply helps countries meet growing demand for energy, it said.

Electricity usage is also expected to grow in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including the electrification of services like transport and heating, rising demand for cooling, and increasing consumption from emerging sectors such as data centres, the report said.

“Weather factors particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand,” IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said. “The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” he added. Despite calls to halt humanity’s burning of the filthiest fossil fuel driving climate change, the energy watchdog expects global demand for coal to hit record highs for the third year in a row.

Scientists have warned that planet-warming greenhouse gases will have to be drastically slashed to limit global heating to avoid catastrophic impacts on the Earth and humanity.

Record Chinese demand

Though Beijing has sought to diversify its electricity sources, including a massive expansion of solar and wind power, the IEA said Chinese coal demand in 2024 will still hit 4.9 billion tonnes — itself another record.

Increasing coal demand in China, as well as in emerging economies such as India and Indonesia, made up for a continued decline in advanced economies. However that decline has slowed in the European Union and the United States. Coal use there is set to decline by 12 and five percent respectively, compared with 23 and 17pc in 2023.

With the imminent return to the White House of Donald Trump — who has repeatedly called climate change a “hoax” — many scientists fear that a second Trump presidency would water down the climate commitments of the world’s largest economy.

Coal mining also hit unprecedented levels by topping nine billion tonnes in output for the first time, the IEA said, with top producers China, India and Indonesia all posting new production records.

The energy watchdog warned that the explosion in power-hungry data centres powering the emergence of artificial intelligence was likewise likely to drive demand for power generation up, with that trend underpinning electricity demand in coal-guzzling China. The 2024 report reverses the IEA’s prediction last year that coal use would begin declining after peaking in 2023.

At the annual UN climate change forum in Dubai last year, nations vowed to transition away from fossil fuels. But its follow-up this year ended in acrimony, with experts warning that the failure to double down on that landmark pledge at COP29 in Azerbaijan risked jeopardising efforts to fight climate change. Set up in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, the IEA styles itself as “the world’s leading energy authority”.

Published in Dawn, December 19th, 2024