• Punjab sees gulf of over half million between valid ballots cast in national and provincial assembly constituencies
• Report notes ‘invalid votes’ in provincial polls outnumbered those for NA contests; three big parties gained more seats than their share of votes

ISLAMABAD: The number of votes polled in the 2024 general elections for National Assembly seats exceeded the number of votes cast for provincial assembly seats in Punjab and Sindh provinces, with Punjab alone accounting for a difference of over half a million.

Conversely, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan saw more votes cast for provincial assembly contests than National Assembly seats.

According to a recent report by the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen), the number of valid votes polled for the National Assembly seats in Punjab was 37.06 million, compared to 36.55m votes polled for provincial assembly seats, reflecting a gap of 0.509m.

In Sindh, 11.41m votes were polled for the national and 11.34m for the provincial assembly seats.

In contrast, in Khyber Pakhtun­khwa and Balochistan, 29,114 and 28,875 more votes, respectively, were polled for provincial assembly seats as compared to the National Assembly.

It is worth noting that on election day, all voters are handed two ballot papers each – one to pick a National Assembly candidate and the other to select a representative for the provincial assembly.

But since both ballots are deposited in separate ballot boxes, it is possible that one vote cast by an individual is rejected due to any reason, while the other is considered valid.

In addition, electoral experts say that certain voters may only cast ballots for one seat and not the other, depending on their level of interest in that particular contest.

The Fafen report tries to offer some explanations — such as the fact that voters in Islamabad do not have any provincial assembly candidates to vote for. This accounts for 0.59m votes cast in ICT but doesn’t explain the 0.509m difference seen in Punjab, for example.

According to the report, the difference in the votes cast for national and provincial assemblies is reflected in the number of valid votes. Compared to provincial assembly seats, 1,117,624 more valid votes were recorded in the party/candidate tally in National Assembly results.

Fafen notes that the difference in the number of invalid votes between national and provincial assembly elections directly contributes to this difference.

Invalid votes in provincial elections (1,839,026) outnumbered invalid votes in the National Assembly elections (1,768,471), the report says.

Party share of votes and seats

In the broader context of the consolidation of votes among fewer parties, the PPP strengthened its hold in Sindh, whereas the PTI strengthened its hold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Punjab transitioned from PML-N’s dominance in 2013 to a competitive two-party race between the PML-N and PTI in 2018.

In the 2024 elections, competition between the two parties dominated national and provincial assembly elections in Punjab. The PTI maintained its leading position in the National Assembly elections, with a narrow lead of one point over the PML-N. However, in provincial assembly elections, the PML-N edged past the PTI by a single point.

In terms of the comparative party share of votes and seats, overall, all three leading parties (PTI, PML-N, and PPP) gained a higher share of national and provincial seats than their share of votes.

Compared with their respective shares of votes, the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the PPP in Sindh received significantly higher shares of national and provincial assembly seats. The PTI secured 45pc of votes and 80pc of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s National Assembly seats. The party won 75pc of the provincial assembly seats for a share of 38pc of the votes. The PPP won 72pc of Sindh’s National Assembly seats for its share of 46pc of votes. The party also won 65pc of the provincial assembly seats for 46pc of the votes.

In Punjab, the PML-N and the PTI secured significantly higher proportions of national and provincial assembly seats. In Punjab, the PML-N won 48pc of the province’s National Assembly seats for its 34pc share of votes and 47pc of provincial seats for its share of 32pc in the provincial election votes. The PTI won 38pc of Punjab’s National Assembly seats for a share of 35pc of the votes. The party won 37pc of the seats for its share of 31pc of the votes.

In Balochistan, the PML-N and the PPP won a significantly higher proportion of seats than their share of votes. The PML-N secured 25pc of the National Assembly seats in the province, with 14pc of the votes, and 24pc of the provincial seats with 13pc of the votes. The PPP won 13pc of the province’s National Assembly seats for its share of 10pc of the votes and 20pc of the provincial seats for its share of 16pc of the votes.

In Balochistan, while national parties increased their share of votes in both national and provincial elections, other parties and independent candidates continue to hold significant shares of both votes and seats.

In terms of voter turnout, the National Assembly turnout in all provinces was higher than the respective provincial assembly turnouts. The difference in national and provincial election turnouts was the highest (0.8pc) in Balochistan, followed by Punjab (0.4pc), Sindh (0.3pc), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (0.3pc).

Breakdown of votes

Compared to 18,032,955 (30pc) votes bagged by PTI’s National Assembly candidates, the party’s provincial assembly candidates secured 15,384,714 (26pc). The party won 88 (33pc) NA seats and 201 (34pc) seats in four provincial assemblies.

The PML-N followed closely, with 14,121,509 (24pc) national and 12,626,257 (22pc) provincial assembly votes. The party won 75 (28pc) national seats and 156 (26pc) seats in the four provincial assemblies.

The PPP secured 8,235,875 (14pc) and 8,155,000 (14pc) votes in the national and provincial constituencies, respectively. The party won 54 (20pc) National Assembly seats and 109 (18pc) seats in the four provincial assemblies.

In contrast to the three leading parties, other parties and independent candidates received more votes in provincial contests than in National Assembly contests.

Notwithstanding the comparatively lower share in provincial assembly elections, the three leading parties secured a disproportionately higher share of seats in national and provincial assemblies.

In contrast, other parties and independent candidates won disproportionately: they secured 21pc of the total nati­onal and provincial votes and secured only 13pc of the seats.

Among these, MQM-P, JUI-F, and TLP secured significant shares of votes and varying proportions of seats.

Published in Dawn, December 23rd, 2024