RECENT events in Syria have prompted some intriguing questions about the future of global politics. With Islamist-led rebels seizing control of Damascus and forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee, ending more than 50 years of Baath Party rule, many are left wondering what comes next for Syria and how this will affect Middle Eastern power dynamics.

One key factor to think about is Russia’s involvement. For years, Russia has been a strong ally of the Assads, providing critical support, especially after its inter-vention in 2015, which helped the Syrian dynasty regain control of much of the country. But as the situation in Syria has drastically shifted, one cannot help but wonder if this is a part of some larger political bargain between Russia and the United States.

Could it be that the US has agreed to scale back its support for Ukraine in exchange for Russia stepping back from its role in Syria? Historically, Russia has been firm in its backing of Syria even against international pressure. But now, this shift in Syria’s power structure might signal that Russia is re-evaluating its priorities. Russia’s decision to refrain from directly getting involved in Syria’s new political process, as stated by its foreign ministry, suggests the Russians might be rethinking their approach.

Additionally, this shift might be a component of a broader plan to prevent future hostilities with the West. Russia may be using this as a chance to ease tensions over Ukraine while concen-trating on other urgent matters, such as its ties with the European Union and Nato.

If this turns out to be the case, the US may be able to swiftly modify its own approach, particularly with regard to Ukraine. For the West, a decrease in Russia’s engagement in Syria would undoubtedly be advantageous, potentially creating more space for regional diplomatic solutions. Israel’s increased aggression in the region, particularly in the Golan Heights, is exacerbating the situation. Israel is advancing its interests in Syria, including expanding its territorial control, making the situation even more uncertain. Any political change in Syria will most likely be influenced by the actions of external powers, such as Israel and the US, each of whom has its own interests to protect.

What happens in Syria will have rami-fications not only for the country, but for the entire Middle East and even geopolitics. As Russia adjusts its position and world powers consider compromises, the coming months will reveal whether a new balance of power has a chance to emerge.

Shafique Rajper
Naushahro Feroze

Published in Dawn, December 24th, 2024