Stakeholders in the auto sector, who introduced both locally assembled and imported pure electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), must be excited now after getting a good response from customers from the elite class. In 2025, the upper class may see many more options with the entry of new locally assembled HEVs from Japanese and Korean assemblers like the Honda HR-V, Haval Tank 500 and Kia Sorento.

This past year, China’s EV giant BYD introduced two imported battery electric vehicles before launching locally assembled EVs to be functional in 2026 near the Karachi plant with an investment of $150 million and an annual production capacity of 50,000 units.

In a chat with Dawn, stakeholders in the various categories of EVs appear highly reluctant to share the outlook for 2025 relating to local assembly, sales and introduction of new locally assembled and imported models.

Indus Motor Company (IMC) CEO Ali

Asghar Jamali shared, “Currently we are focusing on the locally assembled Toyota Corolla Cross HEV whose sales during 2024 hovered between 7,000-8,000 units out of total Toyota vehicles sales.”

Auto companies, bolstered by positive market response, double down on EV, HEV, and PHEV production

Without citing any serious challenges during 2025, he anticipated bright sales prospects for HEV, expecting tough competition with Chinese-assembled hybrid models. On a possible sales war between HEV and pure electric vehicles, Mr Jamali said sales of both technologies depend on consumers’ demand.

General Manager Marketing, MG Motors Pakistan, Syed Asif Ahmed explains, “We have received an overwhelming response for the locally assembled PHEV vehicle and sold over 500 units since its unveiling.”

When asked EV imports of completely built units (CBU) pose any challenge, the MG executive replied, “We have to look at the CBU versus CKD [completely knocked down] debate from a global perspective. Inward looking policies have made Pakistan competitive. We have to do whatever it takes to become part of the global supply chain of parts and vehicles, especially EVs.”

Once the technology matures and prices reduce, the masses will adopt EVs

On a statement that EVs are for the rich and not for the masses, Mr Ahmed elaborated that, “This is a misconception. There are EVs costing less than $10,000 in the world. Yes, the current buyers are from the elite class but that is true for all innovative products, eg smart phones. Once the technology matures and prices reduce, the masses will adopt EVs.”

The market is abuzz with reports that Lucky Motor Corporation Limited will soon launch a locally assembled Kia HEV car. Chief Strategy Officer, Lucky Motor Corporation Limited, Babar S Khan, said he cannot comment on new launches in 2025. The company had introduced an imported KIA EV5 recently.

He said that the industry is hopeful that the demand situation will improve in 2025 and will bode well for new energy vehicles (NEVs), too, with so many being launched in the latter part of 2024 and some planned for the next year. Furthermore, he hoped that the share of NEVs will grow, albeit dominated by hybrid electric vehicles primarily due to consistent government policy.

Mr Khan said EV adoption will also increase in 2025 as customers become more familiar with the new technology and its challenges. He added that the government’s support will be critical to speed up this process in addressing the general sales tax anomaly on CKD EVs above 50KwH and charging infrastructure.

A Chinese assembler who introduced a small, pure, low-priced EV vehicle said that this is the first time in the country’s auto landscape that the assemblers of petrol/diesel vehicles will face a tough time in future after the arrival of EVs, PHEVs and HEVs.

“In case charging infrastructure fully develops, a time will come that EVs will lead sales,” he predicted explaining that low import duties on CBU imports of EVs should be enhanced to make local EV assembly more feasible.

With around 2,000 EVs in the country, mass EV adoption is yet to start. Master Changan Motors Limited (MCML), a joint venture between Master Group of Industries and Changan International, has identified four challenges to tackle in order to catalyse mass EV adoption: 1) the introduction of the right pure-EV product at the right prices, 2) efficient batteries for long driving ranges, 3) nationwide after-sales support network and 4) charging infrastructure.

As per the government’s ambitious NEV sales target of 30pc of sales by 2030, 90pc by 2040 and 100pc by 2060, around 40 sites have been identified for the construction of charging stations along motorways and highways while some petrol pumps are also opening charging stations. A month back, Federal Industries and Production Minister, Rana Tanveer Hussain said that some 31 companies had shown interest in assembling EVs, while 10,000 charging stations have been planned to be set up by 2030.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 30th, 2024