IN 2024, South Asia found itself in the midst of profound transformation. The region is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape characterised by political upheavals, shifting alliances, and the expanding influence of China.

The interplay between India’s regional ambitions, China’s strategic outreach, and the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy underscores the intricate power dynamics shaping the region. Additionally, significant political changes across key countries have created a fragile environment where entrenched rivalries and external influences heavily impact the region’s trajectory.

“In 2024, South Asia’s geopolitical landscape was radically altered, to the detriment of India and to the benefit of China and Pakistan. … China has won the mini-Cold War in South Asia, defeating the principal proxy of the US, which is a big setback to America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy,” commented Senator Mushahid Hussain, former head of the Senate’s influential foreign affairs and defence committees.

Looking ahead, the impending presidency of Donald Trump in 2025 introduces an air of uncertainty. Will his policies sustain the existing dynamics or disrupt the status quo in ways that redefine the region’s future? One thing is clear: South Asia’s stability and power dynamics hang in the balance, making the coming year pivotal in determining the course of this strategically vital region.

Mass protests in Bangladesh over economic grievances, job quotas, and political repression culminated in Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and exile.

Dr Maleeha Lodhi, former envoy to the US, UK, and UN, believes the region will remain an arena for superpower competition “even though US interest in the region as a whole, save its deepening partnership with India, seems to have waned after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.”

Modi’s triumph

Narendra Modi secured a historic third term as India’s prime minister in 2024, though the BJP fell short of a parliamentary majority, necessitating a coalition government. This election outcome reflected a shift in voter priorities, with economic grievances such as unemployment and income inequality overshadowing Hindu nationalist themes and India’s big power aspirations.

Despite challenges, the BJP regained momentum in subsequent state elections, achieving victories in Haryana and Maharashtra, and strengthening its position in by-elections. With a majority in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP is now better placed to deal with the demands of regional allies while advancing contentious reforms like labour laws, privatisation, and the Uniform Civil Code.

India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ strategy continues to emphasise ties with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. Relations with China showed cautious improvement after Modi’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in Kazan on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit leading to resumption of high-level talks over border disputes and selective trade cooperation.

However, ties with Pakistan remained in a diplomatic deadlock, with India prioritising counterterrorism and showing little interest in dialogue on Kashmir. Strategic partnerships with the US and the Quad, meanwhile, continued to be robust, but simmering strains in India-US ties became more pronounced in 2024. The US recognises that its convergence with India on China has limits due to India’s domestic challenges and the militarised Sino-Indian land border, which restricts India’s ability to engage beyond its immediate backyard. The rise of the Philippines as a more attractive US partner in countering China and the Quad’s underperformance have also contributed to Washington exploring alternatives.

Further incidents straining India-US relations included the White House warning India over a reported plot to assassinate a Sikh activist on American soil and the indictment of Indian tycoon Gautam Adani by a US court for allegedly bribing Indian officials for power supply projects.

Efforts to position India as a manufacturing hub were hindered by limited structural reforms and sluggish foreign investment. Growth rates have been continuously slipping. GDP growth for the July-September 2024 quarter was 5.4 per cent — the lowest for any quarter in two years and the third consecutive slowdown due to sluggish manufacturing and mining performance.

Hasina’s departure

Meanwhile, mass protests in Bangladesh over economic grievances, job quotas, and political repression culminated in Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and exile, marking the end of her tenure. Dr Muhammad Yunus now leads an interim government backed by the military, tasked with stabilising the country and preparing for elections.

Mushahid Hussain described Hasina’s fall as “the biggest blow to India since Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998.”

Yunus’s policies, including lifting bans on Islamist groups, have raised concerns about extremism. India, previously a close ally under Hasina, views these developments with apprehension, fearing increased anti-India sentiment. Meanwhile, China sees an opportunity to expand its influence, leveraging economic and military ties. Yunus’s engagement with the West, however, counters Beijing’s sway, potentially reshaping Bangladesh’s geopolitical stance.

As we enter 2025, South Asia stands at a crossroads. While external forces undoubtedly play a role, the region’s future hinges on its capacity to confront internal vulnerabilities and cultivate greater cooperation. Fostering deeper economic integration and expanding trade within the region will be essential to buffer against global economic headwinds. Furthermore, by embracing diplomacy, multilateralism, and robust regional cooperation, South Asia can unlock its vast potential and chart a sustainable course towards economic recovery and stability.

A detailed version of this article can be found at www.dawn.com.