THE alliance between the ruling PML-N and its ‘junior partner’, the PPP, is a testament to the power of politics to bring the foes of yesteryear together against a common foe.

The first time they were compelled to join hands was under the umbrella of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), following the 1999 military coup by Gen Pervez Musharraf. With both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto in exile, the job of keeping the peace fell on Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan’s shoulders — and it was no easy job.

Then, in May 2006, the two sides came together to sign the 36-point Charter of Democracy in London — regretting their past actions and agreeing on a number of constitutional measures to strengthen democracy in the country.

The outcome of that charter was the smooth transition of power from assemblies under Musharraf to a democratically-elected government in 2008 — an assembly that actually completed its five-year term without being rudely interrupted. Although the PML-N initially joined the PPP cabinet for a brief period, it exited the ruling coalition within months after differences over the restoration of judges deposed by the Musharraf regime.

Analysts believe ‘the common adversary’ will compel both parties to stay part of the alliance, held together with the establishment’s support

Imran Khan’s victory in the 2018 elections saw both parties facing the brunt of what the government of the day saw as accountability. This common foe galvinised the two parties, which found themselves together on the opposition benches.

And when the opportunity to unseat the PTI regime through a vote of no-confidence emerged, both sides banded together with other, smaller parties to form the Pakistan Democratic Move­ment (PDM) alliance that saw out the term of the assemblies until last year’s long-overdue polls were held.

In the wake of last year’s elections, though the PPP became a major part of the alliance of parties that coalesced to form the incumbent ruling setup, it has refused to be bracketed as a coalition partner of the federal government. This is despite the fact that it controls provincial governments in Sindh and Balochistan, and several key constitutional offices — such as the presidency, the Senate chairmanship and the governor houses of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — have been given to the party in exchange for its support.

Marriage of convenience

Politicians — including leaders from both parties — as well as political analysts believe that the presence of a common adversary — Imran Khan — will compel the country’s two main parties to put aside their differences and collaborate to maintain the present set-up, with the backing of the establishment, which is playing a crucial role in holding this unlikely alliance together.

For the PPP, this comes at the cost of having to make many compromises and support some unpopular decisions of the present regime, even to the extent of ignoring dissenting voices emanating from within its own ranks.

In background discussions, many observers said they believed the PPP was prepared to do all of this to ensure that its chairman, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, would become the next prime minister whenever the country goes into elections next, as this is only possible only if he remains in the ‘good books’ of those that matter.

In the wake of the Feb 8 polls, the PML-N made many attempts to woo the PPP to formally join the federal government, with PM Shehbaz Sharif even delaying the formation of his cabinet in the hope that the PPP might change its mind.

There was pressure on PM Shehbaz from within his own party to have the PPP in the federal cabinet at all cost, as was the case in the PDM era. This, they reasoned, would help them share the fallout from “difficult decisions” which the present setup would inevitably have to take in order to seek a bailout package from the IMF.

But while the PPP has continued to resist the offer, it has silently endorsed all the actions of the ruling party.

In the words of political analyst Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, it is the common enemy — the PTI — which is forcing the PPP to cooperate with the PML-N in sustaining the federal government. “The establishment has provided the necessary glue to keep this cooperation going,” he said.

Mr Mehboob, who heads the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said the PPP probably thought that by maintaining its distance, the party could protect itself from the fallout of unpopular decisions taken by the PML-N-led federal government.

“If we look closely, we can already see an early election campaign, as the two parties are busy projecting their respective potential candidates for the PM — Bilawal from the PPP and Maryam Nawaz from the PML-N side,” he said.

According to Mr Mehboob, the uneasy alliance between the two parties would continue till the establishment’s binding force lasts and the PPP finds an opportune time to be in a position to win the next general election at the centre. However, he said, such a situation may not arise very soon.

In the meantime, he said, the PPP would continue to put pressure and extract as much benefits from the federal government as possible in return for sustaining the present set-up. “One should not rule out the possibility of a coalition federal government of the PPP, the PTI and even the PML-N whenever the stars align.”

Bones of contention

The first signs of trouble emerged at the time of the presentation of the federal budget in June, when the PPP complained that it was not taken onboard in the preparation of the budget, forcing Mr Sharif to proactively engage the party. It was at this time when the nation came to know that there had been a written agreement between the two parties regarding power-sharing, the details of which are still not known to the public.

After voting for the budget, the PPP again started complaining that it has not been taken on board by the PML-N on key national issues and important legislation. But despite constantly expressing its reservations over a number of government actions, the party extended unconditional support to the PML-N, enabling it to bulldoze a number of crucial pieces of legislation through parliament, including the extension of the tenures of the three services chiefs.

Then, days after the PPP chairman played a key role in securing the passage of the much-hyped 26th Constitution Amendment that altered the shape of the judiciary, Mr Bhutto-Zardari publicly expressed annoyance with the government over a lack of coordination, accusing them of reneging on its promises by not ensuring equal representation for both parties in the newly-empowered Judicial Commission of Pakistan (JCP).

Since then, committees formed by the two sides to iron out their differences have held many rounds of discussion. After each huddle, both come out with the same old mantra of “all is well” within the ruling coalition, even though we all know that is clearly not the case.

According to snippets gleaned from whatever has been reported about their agreement so far, the PML-N government in Punjab was supposed to take the PPP onboard for major administrative decisions and transfers and postings in two districts — Multan and Rahim Yar Khan — where the PPP has a stronghold. It was also agreed that the PPP would be given a due share in development schemes in the province.

But practically, PPP leaders claimed, the PML-N seemed to have changed its mind, with Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz proving to be the main hurdle in the implementation of the accord.

Responding to this gripe, Punjab Information Minister Azma Bokhari insisted that CM Maryam followed a “merit-based policy”, and posited that when some 200 PML-N lawmakers don’t get a say in transfers and postings, how could the PPP demand such a boon with its 10 MPAs in Punjab.

Talking to Dawn, a senior PPP leader confirmed that there was a strong group, comprising mostly members from the Punjab, which was quite unhappy over the present arrangement. He said that in recent meetings, they had apprised Mr Bhutto-Zardari about the actions taken by the PML-N in the past to suppress and marginalise the party.

Members from Punjab, he said, were of the view that the PPP could not see a resurgence in the most-populous province until it disassociated itself from the PML-N. The party chairman, however, has advised members to wait for an “appropriate time”, while continuing to raise their voices in parliament.

Public criticism

The PPP has publicly criticised the PML-N’s various governments on a number of issues. Firstly, it was the power subsidy programme to provide relief to lifeline consumers during peak summer season. The criticism was no doubt prompted by pressure from Sindh constituents to announce a similar step.

Initially, it was only the PPP’s Punjab chapter that simmered with resentment over the leadership’s decision to join the ruling coalition under the PML-N. However, when the corporate farming initiative of the federal government and its decision to draw more canals from the Indus River came to light, it gave the PPP more ammunition with which to attack its ruling partner.

The plan to irrigate the Cholistan region of south Punjab with what Sindh views as its share of water prompted a strong reaction from Sindh’s political circles, forcing the party to reject the plan in unequivocal terms.

MB Soomro, a senior Islamabad-based journalist from Sindh, maintains that for the time being, there is no option before both parties but to stay together. The PPP, he said, was under fire in its home province of Sindh, but at the same time it could not afford to exit the ruling coalition, either. He said the party had perhaps not been able to gauge the on-ground situation in its home province, for which it might have to pay a heavy price, if it fails to satisfy the agitating nationalist forces.

Mr Soomro referred to the contents of a recent handout, issued by the Presidency after a recent meeting between President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Dec 23. It stated that President Zardari had “assured the PM of his continued support and cooperation for the country`s progress and stability.”

The meeting had taken place amid an environment of acrimony and reports that last week, key PPP leaders had expressed a lack of confidence in the federal government.

“Had there been no compulsion, the PPP would have opted to sit on the opposition benches till now,” said Mr Soomro, who has been covering politics and parliament for more than two decades.

According to him, “the establishment has been playing the role of a bridge between the two parties and their alliance is necessary to maintain the present system”, adding that the present set-up would continue until “the real powers find an alternative.”

Published in Dawn, January 3rd, 2025