ISLAMABAD: Former ambassadors and policy experts at a conference on Wednesday underlined the need for coordinated Syrian policy in order to ensure that the strife-torn country is saved from balkanisation.

They were speaking at a roundtable session ‘Syria – Latest Developments’ organised by Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI). Former ambassadors Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Air Marshal Saeed Khan, diplomatic representatives from Russia and Turkey, former special representative to Afghanistan Ambassador Asif Ali Durrani, President IPRI Ambassador Raza Mohammad and Director Research Dr Raashid Wali Janjua spoke at the conference.

The speakers showed surprise over the sudden fall of Bashar Al Assad regime, and the taking over of Damascus in a jiff without any resistance from the Syrian armed forces. They pointed out that Hayat Tahrir-Al Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani have a gigantic task of ensuring an inclusive government, and rebuilding the country by taking down sanctions on it.

It was also noted Russia is still maintaining its naval bases, Tartus and Latakia, and wants to use it for humanitarian assistance. They were of the view that the fall of Assad was fait accompli, and many of the regional stakeholders including Iran, Russia and Lebanon saw it coming as they met in Doha, Qatar, sometime back.

The Damascus debacle draws its parallels from the fall of Kabul, and is a setback for the region if peace and stability is not restored in the shortest possible time. The fact that most of the HTS men have gone underground, and are still holding the fort without any resistance speaks high of the dynamics, and pose severe challenges.

It was also pointed out that China’s diplomatic presence in the Mideast is of importance and its role in Syria is “cautious”, and Beijing’s endeavour will be to work on economic upgradation. Likewise, it was observed that the upcoming Donald Trump administration would not meddle in Syria and not like to pour in taxpayers’ money. This comes as an opportunity to broker a thaw and let Syria put its house in order.

Galvanising of all political forces for forging a consensus on new constitutional hallmarks is indispensable for the future of the Arab state. They also noted that any forced solution on Arabs and Syria without justice will lead to revulsion.

Similarly, the panelists observed that Turkey can prevail over the US as a NATO state to play a crucial role for stability, and lessening strife in the Kurd-administered regions of Syria is a challenge. Moreover, they believed Syria will remain a hotbed and Iran’s role will never be diminished as it has direct stakes in preserving the security and access of pilgrims to the second-most sacred Shia shrines in Damascus.

Pakistan’s role in rebuilding Syrian security forces in future, on the lines of post-Saddam Iraq, was also pointed out, and a need was stressed to play a neutral role in the crisis.

Delegates also underlined the absence of a proactive role from Pakistan for Syria during 2000 to 2018, which had led to deteriorating relations.

The role played by Islamabad from 2019 to 2022 was appreciated, wherein Pakistan was at the vanguard in providing assistance to fight Covid, and biggest medical aid was flown by erecting an air bridge. Similarly, Pakistan helped Syria run schools and as a result PIA air-link was restored after many years of suspension. Pakistan has economic stakes in Syria as it is home to a large number of Shia pilgrims to Damascus, contributing to its economy.

The session noted that President Assad hardly had his control over 60pc of territory, and despite support from the Axis of Resistance, Iran-Lebanon-Russia, it could not stay afloat. The continuous bombardment of Gaza, obliteration of Hezbollah in Lebanon, severing of supply from Iran and preoccupation of Russia in Ukraine conflict were sighted as the primary reasons for inordinate ouster of Assad regime.

The speakers observed that repatriation of refugees and their settlement are major tasks, and a culture of dominance through proxies must come to an end. Rather, it was pinned that a new culture of regional cooperation must set in, and it’s high time to ensure that Israel’s encroachment and meddling deep inside Syria is resisted.

Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2025