Since Pakistan began to regain the trust of the cricketing fraternity as a host capable enough of staging safe and secure cricketing events, there have been several milestones celebrated.

Sri Lanka’s arrival in 2019, staging the entire Pakistan Super League at home for the first time in 2020, and the arrival of West Indies and South Africa in 2021 were all early but important pieces to keying the puzzle that was jumbled up on March 3 of 2009. It was that wretched day when the Sri Lankan team had come under a terrorist attack in Lahore and turned Pakistan into a pariah of the cricketing world for the next decade.

Then came the watershed year of 2022 that saw Australia, England and New Zealand all tour Pakistan and safely return to their countries. No drama. No negativity. Reputation resurrected.

But as monumental as these milestones sounded, all they were was a mere stepping stone to the big goal of bringing back an ICC event to Pakistan after nearly three decades. The final stretch of that culmination begins today when Pakistan host New Zealand in the first match of the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy at the National Stadium Karachi.

Pakistan’s side of things

It’s probably the first and only time that the host nation’s organisers and administrators are under more pressure to deliver than their players.

The expectation for the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) to host the Champions Trophy successfully is greater than the expectation for the players to retain the title. It probably means that barring a completely disastrous campaign, most fans should be forgiving, which bodes well for Team Pakistan who have not been the smoothest of operators under pressure, historically speaking.

After four straight ICC tournaments — three World T20I and one ODI World Cup — under Babar Azam, Pakistan have a new captain in Mohammad Rizwan, who started his era with three straight ODI series wins against Australia, Zimbabwe and South Africa — all away from home, which made the feats even more remarkable.

That 100 per cent record was only marred recently when his side lost to New Zealand in the final of the tri-nation series but that can be forgotten due to his prior body of work.

On a personal level, the captaincy is proving to be no burden for Rizwan, whose batting average as ODI captain has jumped to 62.14 against an overall ODI average of 42.76.

While his performances have gone up, Pakistan’s other batting ace, Babar Azam, is going through a rough patch. The batting order has been shuffled and it puts several faces in unfamiliar roles. More on this, here.

Also on the roster are Kamran Ghulam and Khushdil Shah, who have never been able to deliver at the top level despite being bullies on the domestic circuit.

The spin department has Abrar Ahmed but he’s new and unproven at this level. The pace basket is where the team puts all its bowling eggs these days but even this unit is sweating on the fitness of key contributor Haris Rauf, who is nursing a side strain. On the batting side, Saim Ayub was already ruled out due to an ankle injury.

New Zealand’s side of things

New Zealand came to Pakistan in 2021 after 18 years but barely lasted a week, bolting after citing “some security alert”, for which they faced a lot of criticism. Perhaps, out of guilt, the Kiwis have been the most regular visitors to Pakistan since.

They have played a total of 10 ODIs in Pakistan since 2023 across three separate tours, winning five and losing just as many.

What it does is that it gives them the best understanding of and familiarity with the local conditions than anyone else — an example of which came recently when they beat Pakistan comfortably in both their matches of the tri-nation series.

With names such as Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Kane Williamson and Glenn Phillips in their batting unit, there is enough power and depth while several all-rounders mean that there is plenty of variety too with the ball.

Unlike Pakistan, New Zealand do boast quality spinners in the form of Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell. Their pace department can be their weak link as Lockie Ferguson is nursing a hamstring injury.

Despite almost always boasting a more than decent line-up, New Zealand have not been the most successful of sides in ICC events, although they did win a Champions Trophy back in 2000. This time, however, they just might have the tools and the experience to get the job done.

Head to head

In historical head to head, Pakistan have an edge but only just. Of the 118 ODIs played between the sides, Pakistan have won 61 and New Zealand 53.

That gap used to be a lot wider until New Zealand put together a run of 10 straight ODI wins over Pakistan between 2014 and 2018.

While there is generally very little to choose between the two, Pakistan have managed to handle New Zealand quite easily in ICC tournaments. In the last two World Cups alone, Pakistan registered impressive victories over the Kiwis.

Who wins?

New Zealand appear to have an edge on paper but it’s thin.

Here is another look: since Champions Trophy 2025 brings little margin of error due to its size, Pakistan can afford to lose just one game. It’d be better for their qualification case to keep that exception for India in the next game than here.

In other words, this is where you give your 110pc and get a head start on the rest of your group mates.

As impressive as New Zealand have been over the past 10 days, it’s difficult seeing them beat Pakistan in three consecutive matches on Pakistani soil. For that and that reason alone, Pakistan should take this one.