ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbouring countries surged by 40.42 per cent to $6.379 billion during the first seven months of FY25 from $4.543bn a year ago.

The trade gap with the regional countries widened mainly due to higher imports from China, India and Bangladesh. In contrast to last year, exports to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka increased unusually in July-January FY25. This growth has largely offset the decline in exports to China.

In FY24, the trade deficit with these countries was $9.506bn, up 49pc from $6.382bn in the preceding year.

The value of Pakistan’s exports to nine countries — Afghanistan, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Iran, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives — rose 5.91pc to $2.763bn in July-January FY25 from $2.609bn over the same period last year.

Pakistan’s total exports reached $19.58bn in 7MFY25, up 10.16pc from $17.77bn in 7MFY24. The share of the regional countries is just around 14pc in overall exports.

At the same time, imports surged 27.83pc to $9.142bn in 7MFY25 from $7.152bn in 7MFY24.

Further analysis showed that imports from China grew by 27.99pc to $8.907bn in 7MFY25 from $6.959bn a year ago. In FY24, imports from China stood at $13.506bn, up by 39.78pc from $9.662bn in the preceding year. The bulk of imports in the region are sourced from China, followed partially by India and Bangladesh.

Pakistan’s exports to China dipped 14.36pc to $1.478bn in 7MFY25 from $1.726bn in 7MFY24.

Imports from India increased 12.21pc to $135.35m in 7MFY25 from $120.62m over the last year. In FY24, imports from India rose 8.866pc to $206.89m — up from $190.04m in the same period last year. Meanwhile, exports to India remained at $0.40m in 7MFY25 against $0.15m over the last year. Exports to India stood at $3.669m in FY24 against $0.329m in the same period the previous year.

Exports to Afghanistan incr­eased 94.16pc to $556.86m in 7MFY25 from $286.79m a year ago. Imports stood at $15.21m against $5.16m in 7MFY24.

No data is available as most trade with Iran is conducted via informal channels. However, Pakistan has opted for barter trade amid the thriving smuggling of Iranian petroleum products and LPG via a porous border of Balochistan.

Exports to Bangladesh increased by 28.74pc to $465.33m in 7MFY25 from $361.44m. Imports grew 44.90pc to $49.05m in 7MFY25 from $33.85m over the last year. The increase resulted after the toppling of the Hasina government in Dhaka.

As a result, the first fully loaded PNSC vessel carrying 26,250 tonnes of white rice will reach Bangladesh on March 4, according to Shamsul Islam, a rice exporter.

In December 2024, Bangladesh showed interest in importing rice from Pakistan to meet domestic needs on a G2G basis. TCP chairman visited Bangladesh and signed the first rice deal of 50,000 tonnes of rice during the first week of February.

Exports to Sri Lanka rose 12.34pc to $256.19m in 7MFY25 from $228.04m. The imports remained static at $34.55m.Shipments to Nepal fell to $1.62m from $1.88m over the last year. Exports to the Maldives rose to $5.53m in 7MFY25 from $5.35m. No trade was observed between Pakistan and Bhutan.

Published in Dawn, February 26th, 2025