AROUND the world, spring brings with it a mild sun and flowers in bloom. But in Karachi, in fact in much of Pakistan, the reality of a false spring is like the glaring truth of climate change. Winter had barely said ‘hello’ when a ferocious summer made its entrance, with no signs of the easy passage of spring. Previously in Karachi, spring would see the mist turn into thin sunshine in walled gardens of rare green. But for some years now, the seasonal change has been punctuated with extremes.

This year, Karachi’s winter vanished overnight, with scorching temperatures the very next morning. There was no gentle rise in heat, no period for acclimatisation: we plunged directly into summer.

The phenomenon is not limited to Karachi. Interior Sindh, southern Punjab and even some parts of Balochistan witness the same situation. Winter makes a sudden exit and within a few days, everyone is removing their sweaters and switching to air conditioners. Farmers, gardeners and others who hope for the rhythm of weather cycles find themselves in a fix. The deficiency of spring disturbs agricultural cycles.

Meteorologists and climate scientists blame this breakdown on global warming and regional climate change. The growing occurrence of heat domes, in which high pressure systems trap warm air, enhances seasonal transitions. South Asia, a target for extreme temperatures, has shorter winters and hotter, unpredictably interrupted summers.

Another very significant aspect includes urban heat islands, most notably in cities such as Karachi, where the unstoppable expansion of concrete absorbs and stores heat. The net result is that even in months where historically the city would cool down, the built environment does not allow temperatures to drop as it used to. A false spring is the bane of farmers. Cereals, fruit and vegetables have trouble reaching full maturity in the proper way due to heat. If the yield is damaged by extreme temperatures, a spurt in mercury in that period renders the crop uneconomical through low yields. The fear of Pakistani farmers is that this year wheat may not be feasible, pushing them to look for alternative crops. This might aggravate the existing food security crisis. Wheat production was insufficient to meet domestic demand during 2023-2024 and more than three million metric tons of the staple had to be imported.

Spring’s vanishing act is more than just a seasonal show of quirkiness.

Erratic weather conditions might ensure a decline in wheat output, thus boosting reliance on imports, which is humiliating for a nation that boasts of being an agricultural giant.

Pakistan’s fragile ecosystems are similarly being tormented. Birds migrate based on temperature cues and might arrive either too early or too late vis-à-vis the building up of food chains, and the blooming of trees and plants.

The repercussions of a false spring go beyond the farm sector — and have public health implications. Heatwaves set in earlier than anticipated. A sudden switch from winter to summer enhances prospects of heat stroke, dehydration, and respiratory problems — especially in the cities where dust combined with pollution and temperature rises produces a very toxic mix. For individuals with seasonal allergies, there might be an unexpected pollen release from trees and plants, causing spikes in allergic reactions at unforeseeable times.

While reversing climate change is a long-term aim, adaptation strategies may include the following: more green spaces, urban forests and urban wetlands in cities like Karachi to help moderate temperatures and maintain some level of seasonal stability. Better forecasting and public awareness are also needed. In return, early warnings of sudden changes in temperature shall be provided to farmers and the general public. Resilient agriculture or climate-smart agriculture is also important. Research in heat-resistant crops and adjusted planting dates may lower the impact a bit.

The fact that spring is hardly there is a clear warning of how quickly the climate crisis is accelerating. Spring’s vanishing act is more than just a seasonal show of quirkiness. It signifies more profound environmental shifts that deserve immediate and urgent attention. If matters continue, summers that can be unforgiving in Karachi and other cities will only increase the misery of millions of people who are already fighting against water scarcity, heatwaves and poor air quality.

What used to be a smooth evolution from cold to warmth has turned into a treacherous climate whiplash! A false spring isn’t just a meteorological abnormality — it is an advance warning of a hotter, more brutal future.

The writer is an expert on climate change and development and founder of the Clifton Urban Forest, Karachi.

mlohar@gmail.com

X: masoodlohar

Published in Dawn, March 22nd, 2025