LAHORE: The poultry prices, which shot through the roof for the last three months, may see a slight dip in coming months, say market analysts.

They, however, warn that this analysis may not hold true if production drops and more farmers opt out.

For the last three months, the chicken prices hovered around Rs500 per kilo before spiking close to the current Rs800 per kilo in March. The situation led to court intervention and the formation of a committee to monitor prices, which now meets fortnightly to review feed prices—the putative reason for high chicken prices in the market.

Inam Javed of the Pakistan Poultry Association says that the country banned the import of genetically modified soya bean during the previous regime, which led to a gross shortage of it and hiked poultry feed prices. This, naturally, resulted in higher chicken costs and prices in the market, which created a social and political reaction. Stung by the popular reaction, the government withdrew the import ban and, in the meanwhile, world prices of soybean also started coming down. The imports have started coming to Pakistan. The first shipment is due in the first week of April, which may take another 15 days to reach broilers’ farmers. Add another six weeks for flock raising, and reduced soya bean prices are expected to translate into chicken prices. “So, we are hoping to see some relief in broiler prices by mid-June,” he hopes.

Tariq Javaid, president of the Punjab Chapter of the Poultry Association, warns of risks that this analysis faces. He says that the decisive reason behind skyrocketing prices is a drop in production, not solely the prices of soya bean or poultry feed. Due to a cap on price, which is notified at Rs383 per kilogram for live chicken, more and more farmers are opting out of the business. Though this price stands completely irrelevant to the market, where the same quantity and quality is selling beyond Rs450 per kilogram, it does survive on paper and becomes the basis of the officially notified price.

“Farmers know this official price exists and can be implemented strictly, especially during a high-price situation. So, instead of taking the risk of staying in the business and facing official wrath, they opt out, hitting production and prices. This is how the chicken market turns topsy-turvy. Unless this business model—officials intervening when farmers make money and staying out when they lose—changes, nothing else is going to work,” he warns.

“On court direction, the government has formed a feed prices monitoring committee, which meets every 15 days, reassesses market changes, and notifies prices,” Khaleeq Arshad — owner of feed markets — says.

This committee includes all stakeholders and debates the issue threadbare every fortnight. It met last Tuesday, calculated all factors ruling feed prices, and maintained the already fixed price of feed. The existence and working of the committee show that the government is not only aware of high prices but is monitoring and regularly assessing it.

“We are also hoping that the reduction in international soya bean prices brings some relief by June. By that month, local maize would also hit the market and add to the soya bean relief, bringing the cost of feed production down and prices as well. Till then, one can only keep fingers crossed and hope for the best,” Khaleeq explains.

Published in Dawn, March 25th, 2025