WHILE the Trump administration may have no problem with Israel renewing its rampage in Gaza, it is playing peacemaker in the Ukraine conflict. American officials had been meeting their Ukrainian and Russian counterparts in Riyadh over the past few days, and on Tuesday, a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea was announced. Efforts to revive an earlier commitment by Kyiv and Moscow not to hit each other’s energy infrastructure were also endorsed. Washington was basically passing messages back and forth between Moscow and Kyiv in the hopes of securing a temporary ceasefire. But even as peace talks were underway in the Saudi capital, Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to trade fire. No miracles were expected from the parleys in Riyadh, and the present outcome appears to be merely a fragile baby step towards peace.

The fact is that with the change of guard in Washington, Ukraine has lost its major benefactor and financier. While the Biden administration portrayed Kyiv’s battle against Moscow as a grand, almost cosmic duel between the ‘noble’ forces of democracy against the ‘dark’ encroaching forces of authoritarianism, Donald Trump harbours no such illusions. The way the US president and vice-president humiliated the Ukrainian president in the White House last month is an apt illustration of Mr Trump’s feelings about Kyiv’s current leadership. Also, digressing from his predecessor’s approach, Mr Trump has opened lines of communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The cards, therefore, are very much stacked against Ukraine, as the US is no longer interested in bankrolling the war, while Europe is in no position to finance or arm Kyiv. Morally, Russia should withdraw from Ukraine while Kyiv must assure Moscow that it will not be playing the role of Nato’s sidekick in an endeavour to encircle Russia. Unfortunately, the trust deficit between Kyiv and Moscow is huge, and despite the US-backed diplomatic push in Riyadh, peace is unlikely unless both parties make significant concessions.

Published in Dawn, March 27th, 2025