The farmers’ vote

In two months, the Trump administration has injected uncertainty into agriculture, an industry already struggling with low prices, high expenses and unpredictable weather. Now, farmers —traditionally a key block of support for Trump — are also contending with a host of other challenges. USDA and foreign-aid funding is frozen or in limbo. Deportations are expected to squeeze an already tight agricultural-labor market. Tariffs are being aimed at the industry’s main trading partners: Canada, Mexico and China. Just over half of farmers, 54pc, said they didn’t support Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool, according to a poll of nearly 3,000 farmers conducted in March by AgWeb, an agricultural-news website.Farmers accustomed to dealing with uncertainty from the weather and the markets said the federal government, which spends tens of billions of dollars to support them each year, is usually a force helping them offset that instability.

(Adapted from “Trump’s Loyal Farmers Stung By His Funding Cuts And Tariffs,” by Kristina Peterson, published on March 31, 2025, by the Wall Street Journal)

China’s reliance on coal

In Shuozhou, a nondescript city of 1.6m people in northern China’s Shanxi province, the veins of the local economy run black with coal. To the north of the city lies one of the largest open-pit mines in the country. If China ditched coal in favour of cleaner sources of power, the city would be “finished”, warns Sun Zhigang, a recently retired. China has more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined. The prime minister has talked up the country’s “green” and “low-carbon” development. But few coal-fired plants are being retired — and more are being built.Though the share of electricity being generated by coal is shrinking, the amount of coal being burned continues to increase with soaring demand.Officials seem to think that the costs of phasing out the fossil fuel, which supplies over half of the power China generates, are too great.

(Adapted from “China Could Greatly Reduce Its Reliance on Coal. It Probably Will Not,” by The Economist, published on March 31, 2025)

Human smuggling

“There are different types of smuggler,” explains an imigrant in Britain. “Some of the smugglers have a brand. They are famous for using brand-new dinghies, and for using lifejackets. Others are cheap, but not safe at all.” Britain has announced £30m ($39m) in extra funding for the Border Security Command, in addition to the large sums already spent on policing its shores. Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, has promised to “smash the gangs” that brought 36,800 migrants across the English Channel in small boats last year. But the problem is that there are no gangs to smash, if that term implies stable, hierarchical organisations. Migrants sometimes refer to smugglers as “mafia”, and they can be violent. But they seem to be loose networks rather than defined criminal groups, making them harder to disrupt.

(Adapted from “How To Run A Smuggling Business,” by the Economist, published on April 1, 2025)

US’s strong job growth

Job growth was stronger than expected in March, providing at least temporary reassurance that the labor market is stable, the Labor Department reported last week. Nonfarm payrolls increased 228,000 for the month, up from the revised 117,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 140,000, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. However, the unemployment rate moved up to 4.2pc, higher than the 4.1pc forecast. The report comes against a highly uncertain backdrop after President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement this week that has intensified fears of a global trade war that could damage economic growth. Previous indicators showed the labor market holding up, but the tariff moves raise the possibility that companies will hold back on hiring as they assess just what the new trade landscape will look like.

(Adapted from “US payrolls rise by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2pc,” by Jeff Cox, published on April 4, 2025, by CNBC)

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 7th, 2025