NEW DELHI, Nov 21: Self-belief will be the key word for Pakistan when they head into the first Test of the three-match series against India at the Ferozshah Kotla Ground here from Thursday.

India, buoyant by their 3-2 triumph in the One-day International series, definitely start with the all-important psychological advantage on their side since they have an excellent track record over Pakistan at this venue.

In the past four meetings between them at the Kotla at this level, India emerged with victories in the inaugural Test against their arch-rivals in 1952-53 and the previous encounter in February 1999.

Both Indian wins were based around their traditional spin strength; Vinoo Mankad’s 13 wickets decided the first match of the five-match rubber 55 years ago, while Anil Kumble’s rare feat of taking all 10 wickets to go with four first-innings scalps put an end to Pakistan’s victory hopes in 1999.

Kumble, who has been handed the reins of Test captaincy following Rahul Dravid’s unexpected announcement to leave the job after leading his country to its first series in England after 21 years, is a seasoned campaigner with loads of international experience.

The 37-year-old purveyor of leg and top spin returns to take on Pakistan at the Kotla with the memory of 10-74 (14-149 in the game) still vivid in his mind. Moreover, Kumble’s energy level must be on a high after achieving the cherished dream of scoring a century in Test cricket; he made 110 at The Oval in the final Test against England last August.

Kumble’s counterpart Shoaib Malik is relatively still new to international captaincy since he is about to begin only his second Test series — his first overseas — in this role.

However, victory in the last one-dayer at Jaipur on Sunday enables Malik’s men to go into the Test series in a better frame of mind. A 4-1 defeat would have probably left Pakistan directionless.

The most pleasing feature was Malik’s return to form in Jaipur where the young Pakistan captain was not only the top-scorer, but also accounted for three Indian batsmen with his off-spin bowling, which he bowls less these days.

Alarmingly, Pakistan’s preparations received a huge setback on Wednesday when Umar Gul, one of their key bowlers, was taken to hospital for scans on his lower back. The news from the touring camp was not encouraging as the 23-year-old seamer has been ruled out of the Test here.

In that case, Pakistan may draft in the uncapped Sohail Tanvir or the slow left-armer Abdul Rehman. The 23-year-old Sohail has had made rapid strides in limited-overs cricket in recent weeks as a left-arm paceman and handy lower-order batsman.

One look at the Test pitch on Wednesday suggested that it could assist the pacemen on the first day before the batsmen make hay on the next two days with the spinners into play on the remaining two days.

India are sure to field Kumble as well as Harbhajan Singh, the off-spinner who hadn’t tasted Test cricket since the final Test of the 2006 series in the West Indies.

The untimely injuries to R.P. Singh and Shantakumaran Sreesanth have unexpectedly paved way for fellow medium-pacer Munaf Patel to regain his spot that he lost after the Cape Town Test at the start of this year.

Patel will partner Zaheer Khan, now India’s premier strike bowler with the new ball, in a four-man bowling combination Kumble desires to field.

The batting looks pretty much familiar with Wasim Jaffer and Dinesh Karthik returning to open the innings, followed by the likes of Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Saurav Ganguly and the elongated-named Vangipurappu Venta Sai Laxman heading the list of experienced stalwarts. Mahendra Singh Dhoni, free from the responsibility of one-day leadership for the time being, doubles up as the wicket-keeper and the swashbuckling run-getter at No 7.

Pakistan may be lacking that kind of luxury which the Indians enjoy, however the tourists are capable of paying the hosts back in their own coin. Despite their longstanding perennial problems at the top of the order with Yasir Hameed pencilled in this time to partner Salman Butt, who made a splendid comeback in the ODI series, Pakistan still posses a line-up that offers opponents little breathing space.

Undoubtedly, the engine room of Pakistan batting revolves around Younis Khan and Mohammad Yousuf, the sole survivor from the Pakistan side that played here in 1999. These two have struck the uncanny ability to perform well in tandem as their records speak for themselves – their average partnership in Test cricket hovers around the 90-run mark.

Misbah-ul-Haq gets another opportunity to prove that he still has the ability to come good at the highest level after his re-emergence in international cricket at the Twenty20 World Championship not long ago. He is again due to bat at No 6 with the remaining spot taken up by Malik.

Kamran Akmal, the embattled wicket-keeper/batsman, looked sharp during the two practice sessions. But he knows that time is running out and further fumbles on this tour could see him hand over the gloves to the promising Sarfraz Ahmed.

Pakistan’s bowling hopes firmly lie with Shoaib Akhtar and Danish Kaneria. Shoaib has pledged to be on his best behaviour, putting behind the unwanted controversies that had blighted most of his career.

The presence of a fiery fast bowler gives Pakistan a big boost. Still not at his best, Shoaib is a real threat for the Indians even on slow pitches. Kaneria, on the other hand, needs to improve his strike rate. The leg-spinner’s record against India is modest and he’s yet to dismiss the redoubtable Tendulkar.

Not for the first time, Mohammad Sami is on the comeback trail. But now here is the real chance for the 26-year-old fast bowler to prove that he’s more than a useful new-ball partner for Shoaib.

The toss, as always, plays a major part in deciding the outcome of the match. R.P. Sharma, the long-serving curator at the Kotla, believes that this Test won’t end in a draw.

The match is scheduled to start at 9:30am local time.

Likely teams: