SEOUL: US President George Bush’s personal letter to North Korea’s “Dear Chairman” Kim Jong-Il could deter conservatives in both nations from trying to scupper a nuclear deal, analysts said on Friday.

The letter is an unprecedented gesture from a man who once labelled the hardline communist state part of an “axis of evil” and said he loathes Kim.

But analysts were divided on whether the letter will persuade the North to come clean about its suspected highly enriched uranium (HEU) weapons programme, an issue which is delaying progress on a six-nation denuclearisation pact.

In his first ever direct communication to Kim, Bush urged him fully to disclose his nuclear programmes by Dec 31.

The White House termed the letter a firmly worded reminder that it is up to the North to make a full declaration. But Pyongyang’s official media did not disclose its contents.

Analysts said the fact that a US president sent a message would boost Kim’s prestige and may help him face down elements within the powerful military who oppose a nuclear deal.

“There are people, the military, who disagree with the negotiations,” said Professor Toshimitsu Shigemura of Waseda University in Japan.

So the North’s purpose in announcing the letter “was to tell the domestic audience, ‘The American president came on his knees to make his requests’.”

The North staged its first nuclear test in October 2006. But it agreed this year to disable its plutonium-producing plants and declare all nuclear programmes and facilities by year-end in return for major energy aid.

More importantly, if the North next year dismantles the plants and hands over its plutonium stockpile and any weapons, it can achieve its main objective — normalised relations with the United States and an end to sanctions.

The US-supervised disablement is well under way but both South Korean and US officials say the nuclear declaration may not be made till next year.

Suspicions about a secret HEU programme, which caused a previous denuclearisation deal to collapse in 2002, are seen as the main hurdle.

The US says it has good evidence that the North bought uranium enrichment technology and received assistance from Pakistan, even if a HEU programme is not up and running to supplement the acknowledged plutonium operation.

The North has not so far explained the status of the programme to US satisfaction.

Bush’s letter could help break the logjam by pressing Kim to meet US expectations, Baek Seung-Joo of the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses said.

“In terms of diplomatic protocol the letter is something rather pleasant for Kim Jong-il as it means the US president accepted the North as a diplomatic partner,” Baek said.

Koh Yu-Hwan of Dongkuk University said Bush’s message may not trigger dramatic changes but could help reassure Pyongyang that he is not pushing for regime change.

“It may also give North Korea an excuse to change its position. Time is running short but I believe both sides will try to work out a compromise deal,” Koh said.

“By acknowledging openly that Bush has sent a personal letter, North Korea intends to prevent US hawks from creating a new hurdle to its push for improving ties with Washington.”

The letter will help Kim strengthen his tight grip on power, said Kim Young-soo of Sogang University.

The North “is saying our leader is so great that even the US president would send a personal letter,” Kim told Yonhap news agency.

“Will North Korea act upon receiving the letter? My answer is never,” Kim said.

Kim said the North will move when the US removes it from a list of state sponsors of terrorism and ends sanctions under the Trading with the Enemy Act.

“And the North is saying the United States should act first.”—AFP