BALOCHISTAN has only 14 general National Assembly seats out of a total of 272. And if we add three reserved seats for women, the tally rises to 17 against a total of 342 in the lower house of the parliament.

All political parties, except the ones forming the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM), are taking part in the Feb 18 general election. There are 141 candidates contesting the elections — 94 of them belonging to various parties and 47 being independent candidates.

Despite the presence in the field of mainstream parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), Awami National Party (ANP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), electioneering has generally failed to pick up pace in the province. Analysts attribute the lacklustre campaigns to the anti-election drive of the APDM. They say that the parties boycotting the elections have held rallies in various cities and towns of Balochistan and appear to have successfully persuaded people to abstain from the elections.

The absence of the Baloch and Pakhtun nationalist parties has been offset by tough competitions between close relatives in the run for national and provincial assembly constituencies.

Brothers of Quetta district nazim and naib nazim are contesting polls on PML-Q tickets from the provincial capital. Opposition groups have accused them of campaigning for their brothers, adding that the Election Commission has yet to take note of the violations of the code of conduct.

NA-259 (Quetta): This constituency, which comprises Quetta city, has always had interesting contests. In 2002, Maulvi Noor Mohammad was elected from this constituency, defeating Mehmood Khan Achakzai, chief of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP).

Some 16 people are in the run, including 10 independent candidates. Interestingly, the PML-Q has fielded Anwarul Haq, a very young candidate who is contesting his first election.

The PPP has fielded Syed Nasir Ali alias Syed Abbas, a political newcomer, while the MMA has awarded its ticket to Abdul Aziz Khan, a lawyer. The PML-N has chosen Khuda-i-Noor, an experienced politician who worked for Air Marshal (retd) Asghar Khan’s Tehrik Istaqlal and also late Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti’s party. He was elected as a senator on the ticket of the Jamhoori Watan Party but is yet to win in any of the direct elections. He contested from this seat as a JWP candidate in the 2002 elections.

The ANP, which entered into an alliance with the PkMAP, has fielded Commander Khuda-i-Dad. An MQM-backed candidate —Arbab Abdul Ghani Kasi — is also in the run.

The dissident faction of the JUI-F, headed by Maulana Asmatullah, a former provincial finance minister, and Maulvi Noor Mohammad, a hardliner and a former MNA, rejected the nomination of Abdul Aziz Khan. Earlier, the ticket had been awarded to Hafiz Fazal Mohammad, a former senator. The dissident group is supporting Hafiz Fazal, who is now contesting the election as an independent candidate.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman had constituted a committee to resolve differences between former MNA Maulana Mohammad Khan Sheerani and members of the dissident group, but to no avail. The dissident group even refused to accept the orders of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who had asked them to withdraw their nomination papers or face dismissal from his party.

While the dissident group is not in a position to divide the JUI-F’s vote bank, it can certainly create problems for Abdul Aziz Khan.

PML-Q’s candidate Anwarul Haq is said to have no political experience as he joined the party only last year. But he may give a tough time to his opponents because people think of him as a ‘positional candidate’.

Political observers predict that the main contest would feature Anwarul Haq of the PML-Q, Syed Nasir Ali Shah of the PPP, Abdul Aziz Khan of the MMA and Commander Khuda-i-Dad of the ANP, in the absence of PkMAP, BNM-Mengal, National Party and JWP. Syed Fazal Agha, a former governor, is also in the run. He didn’t complete his term even though he won the 2002 elections as a PML-Q candidate. He is now contesting as an independent candidate.

Two women — Rubina Babar and Shahida Parveen — are also contesting the elections from this constituency as independent candidates.

Nasir Ali Shah is also contesting for the first time. His father, Syed Ali Shah, was in the National Awami Party and was elected senator to the first Senate of Pakistan in 1972. He belongs to the Hazara tribe among whom the PPP has a vote bank.

Haji Noor Mohammad Saraf of the same tribe was elected twice to the provincial assembly as a PPP candidate. The PPP has considerable support in some parts of the city. Mr Saraf could also benefit from the ‘sympathy wave’ after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

In the last elections, Mian Saifullah Khan Paracha was the PPP candidate for NA-259 (Quetta).

Abdul Khaliq Hazara is contesting as an independent candidate and if he withdraws from the contest Syed Ali Shah will be the only candidate from the Hazara community. Candidates capable of mustering public support and mobilising the voters are expected to be victorious in the elections.

Maulvi Noor Mohammad had been elected from the constituency with the support of the same ‘silent majority’ which played an important role in Mehmood Khan Achakzai’s win in 1993 as the joint candidate of the Nawaz League and the PkMAP.