BEIJING, Feb 15: China’s trade surplus climbed 22.6 per cent in January from the same month a year ago, state media said on Friday, but economists said a stronger currency could soon put a dent in the rising trend.

The surplus of $19.5 billion in January, published by the state-run Xinhua news agency, quoting the customs bureau, compared with $22.7 billion in December.

“The surplus was bigger than I expected. Probably exporters tried to push out exports ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in early February,” said Ma Qing, an analyst with CEB Monitor Group, a Beijing-based research institute.

“Many of January exports were based on 2007 exchange rates. But the currency has risen rather fast in the past couple of months, and that could start having an impact as we approach summer,” he said.

Exports reached $109.7 billion in January, up 26.7 per cent from the same month a year ago. Imports grew 27.6 per cent in the same month to $90.2 billion.

“Imports have posted strong growth and the trade gap has begun to decline as the government’s policy adjustments have begun to pay off,” Xinhua said, citing customs authorities.

Among recent adjustments, the government has cut export rebates and imposed export taxes, in a bit to address foreign concerns about the trade surplus.

China’s growing trade surplus has been a source of considerable concern among its trading partners, giving rise to claims that an artificially low exchange rate gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage.

China’s trade surplus hit a record high of $262.2 billion last year, up 47.7 per cent from 2006, earlier figures from the customs authorities showed.

China moved its currency, the yuan, away from a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar in July 2005, and has since allowed it to strengthen by about 15 per cent.

However, foreign voices continue to urge China to do more and allow its currency to rise at a faster pace.

The International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn on Friday, on a visit to Beijing, again urged the Chinese government to loosen the reins on the yuan.

“We encourage a faster pace of appreciation that would be helpful for addressing China’s key economic challenges and would also contribute to preserving global economic stability,” he said in a statement.

China would probably see exports slowing this year due to weakening demand and the fallout from the US subprime mortgage crisis, Xinhua said, and analysts predicted the rise in the surplus would be less than last year.

“Some analysts expect the trade surplus to grow by 20 per cent or so this year, but I believe that’s too optimistic,” Chen Yong, a Shanghai-based economist with Haitong Securities, told AFP.

“Exports in 2008 will be impacted not only by weaker overseas demand, but also by the gradual strengthening of the currency.” —AFP