KARACHI, Feb 18: Whichever political party or coalition of parties is thrown up by Monday’s general elections, to rule the country for next five years, one thing is certain that the government’s future economic policies are bound to be populists, employment generating, promoting some sort of social equity to bridge the wide social and economic disparities created in last eight years because of so called pro-business policies.

The incoming government will have to address immediately the wheat procurement issue, worst power supply problem in summer, the oil prices and, of course, the supply and prices of a vast number of essential commodities.

“The choice is either you keep big feudal lords, stock exchange brokers and big businesses in good humour by keeping people in perpetual deprivation or give some relief to the low-wage industrial workers and office employees in cities and small farmers, fishermen and artisans in rural areas,’’ a university teacher said.

“Compare the socio-economic situation of today with that of 1968 and 1969 when late Ayub Khan’s ‘decade of development’ had given rise to 22 families syndrome,’’ he argued while pointing out that the then undivided Pakistan (East and West Pakistan) was fiercely hit by a backlash wave of capital accumulation policies of Shoaib and Uqaili at the fag end-end of Ayub’s decade.

“The amount of frustration and pent up emotions are no less now than what were 40 years ago,’’ he observed. Then in 1968, the stage was set for bringing Pakistan Peoples Party in power in 1970 with a popular vote. Conditions are not different now in 2008.

But whichever party, even if it is PML (Q), comes with majority votes, the leaders are bound to give a hard look at the economic policies of their last eight years. “These policies are not sustainable and are bound to create a social commotion,’’ he declared.

Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, who led the PML (Q) election campaign, had publicly blamed former prime minister and finance minister Shaukat Aziz on more than one occasion for causing wheat crisis in the country. “Induction of new government coincides with the harvesting of new wheat crop,’’ a senior leader of flour milling industry said.

Neither the previous government nor the caretakers announced any support price for wheat this season. More than 80 per cent wheat farmers are small having 2 acres to 12.5 acres of land. All of them are now in a fix so far as disposal of their wheat is concerned.

Unofficially, Sindh and Punjab governments with Passco are expected to procure some 7 million tons of wheat at Rs600 to Rs650 for 40 kg of wheat from the farmers.

Adding to the woes of small farmers is the fact that a good quantity of imported wheat, ordered sometimes in December, will be landing in April when harvesting in Sindh would be in final stages and in full swing in Punjab.

“Imagine what price the small wheat farmer will get in such a situation,’’ the flour milling leader said. “The previous government and the caretakers have sown seeds of a much severe wheat crisis next season than what we experienced this season,’’ he said.

The warning is that the next government should be ready to face hunger marches on the road and food riots if no steps are taken to give due price to small farmers and ensure uninterrupted supply of wheat flour at affordable prices to consumers in the cities.

Another painful and much-awaited decision for the next government is about oil prices. Oil prices touched about $100 a barrel but the outgoing government preferred to take this hit on the public exchequer. Mounting international pressure has left no choice for the government but to go for elections.

Therefore, a government -- that thrived on support of a small vulgarly rich class -- feared the backlash from the people, if the impact of rising oil prices would have been passed on to the consumers in October or November 2007.

Instead, the government preferred to give oil distribution companies bank bonds thus deferring its liabilities for a few years to the future government. Shahid Javed Burki, the caretaker finance minister in 1996 did the same when he raised interest rates from 16 per cent to 18 per cent on defence saving certificates. “Term deposits in banks flew to the defence saving certificates at an unprecedented rate,’’ Dr Ashfaq Khan, special secretary finance disclosed recently while complaining that the present government paid liability of Rs160 billion last year and is paying Rs100 billion this year on ten-year maturity of all those certificates.

How would the government address the shortage of electric power supply is one issue that is closely linked with the industrial and agricultural growth and to beat the scorching heat next summer. Karachi has seen power and water riots since the decade of eighties.

The privatisation of KESC did not bring any joys for some 20 million population of the city. It is same now in other parts of the country. Had Benazir government not initiated private power projects in 1994, the electric supply situation would have been worse. Her government negotiated power projects at six cents a unit on which there was a lot of hue and cry. The present government is offering 10 and 11 cents a unit.

Back in 1995 and 1996, the government negotiated coal-based power projects with foreign investors. The powerful oil lobby in Islamabad is putting all hurdles in setting up these projects. Could the new government make some headway in this direction? ask the eager electorates.