THE spectre of another wheat flour crisis is hovering on the horizon with political bearings for the incoming government. Many commodity market analysts describe the situation as difficult with farming community aspiring to benefit from global commodity price boom and consumers expecting the new government to bring the food inflation down.

The gap between the low domestic wheat support price and its international market rate has created a lot of space and scope for the unscrupulous commodity traders, corrupt bureaucracy and smugglers to play their games and cash on a difficult situation.

Political analysts caution that any government mishandling could exemplify the rural-urban divide and may create fissures in the PPP and PML (N) alliance. The PPP has predominantly rural political base particularly in Sindh and the PML (N) is perceived to be a party that enjoys more popularity in urban centres. Any dramatic increase in wheat flour prices, however, could lead to widespread urban resentment.

Sartaj Aziz, ex- finance minister and a leading PML (N) leader, told Dawn that the next government would raise the support price but it would not be able to match the offer price of commercial commodity traders.

”This is a food crop and its pricing cannot be completely deregulated. The situation will have to be managed with care as flour cannot be allowed to be priced beyond the buying capacity of the poorer segments. The people’s right to food cannot be compromised to please the landed aristocracy”, he said on prospects of dramatic increase in wheat support price.

”At the current minimum wage level wheat flour price beyond Rs16 per kg is unsustainable, so we will try to procure the required quantity to ward off any scarcity of the product that could build pressure on its price at the retail level”, Mr Aziz explained.

The fixation of wheat support price at Rs510 per 40 kg, which is not even half the internationally quoted price of about Rs1100 per 40 kg, has infuriated the farming community who are bent on ignoring the government call for selling wheat at the procurement rate.

The procurement has started in Sindh that has an early crop. There is said to be a stiff resistance from wheat producers who were committing their crop to commercial buyers offering price up to Rs650 per 40 kg.

Several attempts by Dawn to reach the Secretary Agriculture and other high-ranking officials proved futile for the bureaucratic hierarchy seemed to lying low, waiting for the dust to settle amidst a flurry of transfers and postings with the political change in Islamabad. The benefits of hectic activity at the agricultural ministry over the past few years are not known and the agriculture sector continues to under-perform.

”If the rural economy is in a shambles, it must not imply that people in the relevant ministry have been lethargic. On the contrary, the ministry might have failed in propping up the agricultural sector to meet the food requirements or the input demand of the industry but it was malpractices that hit the country over the past seven years. Be it sugarcane, urea, pesticides, food imports or exports”, said a retired bureaucrat who was privy to the several misleading proposals put up by the ministry over the last seven years.

Like many other developing countries, Pakistan’s agrarian economy took a beating on adverse terms of trade as the global market was more rewarding for secondary products producers. After more than three decades, the world has come a full circle and the demand of primary products exceeds market supplies, opening a window of opportunity for developing world to progress faster.

”The sad reality is that Pakistan is not currently positioned to take advantage of the current commodity price surge as it does not have exportable surpluses”, said an ex-banker currently involved in economic research projects.

“If the country is deficient in wheat and cotton crop, the blame rests with the policy makers,” he said.

Why must the tillers sell their produce to the government if they can find buyers willing to pay more?

Would it be fair to punish the rural community for the follies of the economic wizards who failed miserably in positioning Pakistan to gain from commodity price boom in the international market?

The democratic government has assumed power. It would be a good starting point for political leaders to prove superiority of their management skills and commitment to the people by evolving a strategy with involvement of all stakeholders that narrows the scope of rent-seekers and is acceptable to the tillers without being harsh for the public at large.