HARARE: For a few days, many Zimbabweans dared to believe President Robert Mugabe’s rule was drawing to a close; now they fear he will cling to power, reviving ruthless tactics used to cow his opponents a decade ago.
Twelve days after an election which saw the ruling ZANU-PF lose control of parliament for the first time since 1980, hopes are fading for a change from Mugabe, who critics blame for driving his once-prosperous nation into economic catastrophe.
No presidential result has been announced, an opposition legal bid to reveal it is dragging through the courts and ZANU-PF is clearly preparing for a Mugabe-Tsvangirai runoff.
Meanwhile Mugabe is deploying the same independence war veterans and youth militias who helped him overcome a strong MDC challenge in a parliamentary vote in 2000 and the last presidential poll in 2002.
The mainly-white Commercial Farmers Union says war veterans, used by ZANU-PF against its members in 2000, have since the weekend evicted more than 60 farmers, accused by Mugabe of bankrolling the MDC.
“What the war veterans are doing is preparing for a re-run because Mugabe realises that an announcement that he has won outright will not be believed,” said political analyst Lovemore Madhuku.
“You will get the war veterans again on the warpath. If there is a runoff the war veterans would make it difficult for some people to turn out to vote.”
“They might not beat up people the way they did last time, but there will be a lot of intimidation,” said Madhuku, a critic of Mugabe and chairman of pressure group National Constitutional Assembly.
GROWING ANGER: Despite growing anger over a deepening economic crisis that has brought the world’s worst hyper-inflation and shortages of basic commodities, fuel, water and electricity, Mugabe has successfully used state security agents to suppress any attempts at big street protests over the past eight years.
Analysts believe memories of those often brutal reprisals have stopped Zimbabweans going onto the streets over the past week despite rising frustration over the election stalemate.
The mobile phone network, a key link between Zimbabweans at home and abroad, has been stretched to the limit over the past week as they send SMS messages venting their frustration.
“Rigging machine still down. Our technicians are working flat out to rectify the problem. Please keep waiting,” reads one spoof message.
Although analysts have largely excluded an outbreak of violence similar to that which engulfed Kenya after December’s disputed election, some believe prospects of another five years of Mugabe’s rule might just tip Zimbabweans over the edge.
“It is quite disappointing and a bizarre situation where anticipation around a possible political transition that would have marked a watershed moment for Zimbabwe has turned into frustration,” said political analyst Chris Maroleng.
“My concern is that this frustration should not be turned into anger which would result in the electorate taking matters into their own hands.”
STATE OF EMERGENCY: “This is the sort of provocation that ZANU-PF and Mugabe are looking at in order to declare what you could describe as a state of emergency and really close down the limited democratic space that we have witnessed in recent weeks,” said Maroleng, a researcher at the Institute of Security Studies in South Africa.
There are also fears of apathy if Zimbabweans despair of change and lose their appetite to vote in the expected runoff between Mugabe and Tsvangirai.
Even according to the opposition’s own estimates, Tsvangirai only won the March 29 presidential vote by a whisker.
Independent and ruling party projections suggest he was just short of an outright majority.
Tsvangirai needs every vote he can get in a runoff and might try to encourage millions of emigrants, who missed the first vote, to come home this time, encouraged by the MDC showing.
Rights groups critical of Mugabe are trying to keep morale high and prepare the population for battle.
“Did we really expect that after our victory Robert Mugabe would step forward like a gentleman and congratulate Morgan Tsvangirai before handing over power?” said pressure group Solidarity.
“This is not what Robert Mugabe will do. He will struggle to the end, that is in his nature. None of this changes the fact that the majority of people in our country voted for change and nor does it change the fact that we have won.”
While the political deadlock continues, Zimbabwe is unlikely to see the desperately-needed foreign aid that many had hoped would start flowing after the election.—Reuters
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