The government and growers expect to reap a record rice crop this year assuming normal weather conditions.

“We have reports of rapid expansion in paddy plantation this year even in the traditional cotton-growing districts in the southern parts of the province,” Punjab Agriculture Extension Director General Mohammad Anjum Ali told Dawn. “By the end of this month, we hope to exceed the paddy sowing target of 4.3 million acres,” he said.

Growers and rice exporters are hopeful that the total nationwide padding planting would cross the target of 6.4 million acres and reach 6.7 to 6.8 million acres.

“In the same way, the crop output is hoped to far exceed the official target of 5.7 million ton by 0.3 to 0.5 million ton,” AgriForum Pakistan chairman Ibrahim Mughal said. The rice production had gone up to 5.6 million ton (from 6.2 million acres) last year, up by 2.3 per cent from the preceding year.

“The only worrying factor is the possible pest attack on the crop due to hot, humid and wet weather conditions. The government must make arrangement to cope with the situation well in time to protect the crop,” Mughal said.

Why farmers are switching over to rice even in cotton growing-areas? “The major factor pushing the growers to rice, and maize in some areas, of course, is the soaring global and domestic rice prices. In addition, the input cost - water being the main input - is much lower than cotton and other crops. Besides, it doesn’t require too much maintenance due to rare pest attack,” said the Agriculture Extension Punjab chief.

The growing rice output, rice millers and exporters argue, has opened a window of opportunity to push its food exports as the world grapples with acute cereal and grain shortages and face hefty spike in the global food prices.

“Pakistan being the net exporter of rice stands to benefit a lot due to low global production and high prices,” Rice Exporters Association Pakistan (REAP) chairman Mohammad Azhar said while talking to Dawn.

Pakistan’s rice exports grew by just below 46 per cent to $1.525 billion in the first 11 months of the last financial year to May from $1.045 billion the previous years, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan for the last fiscal. This was despite the fact that the quantity had risen by a mere 1.65 per cent during the same period.

Rice exports also constituted above 60 per cent of the total food group exports of $2.414 billion during the period from July 2007 to May 2008.

“Our rice exports from the last crop would cross the magic number of $2 billion,” a beaming Azhar said. He said the actual dollar value of rice exports was much higher than the export remittances received in Pakistan. “That is because of some unscrupulous people in the trade who understated their selling price to keep dollars out of the country,” he said. But, he added, the minimum export price (MEP) was fixed by Ishaq Dar during his brief stint as the nation’s finance minister.

Azhar said Pakistan could gain from the global food shortages and high rice prices. “We can raise our rice exports to $4-6 billion in a span of a few years if the government decides to spell out a clear-cut policy in consultation with the stakeholders and stop sending wrong signals to the market time and again,” he argued.

Although global paddy production is estimated to grow by 2.3 per cent to 2008 from 2007, the global prices are expected to remain strong. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, the export curbs placed by different rice producing countries to control their domestic food prices and feed their citizens were unlikely to pull down the global rice prices. Pakistan is among the few countries that have not put any restrictions on rice exports.

“The Indian decision to curb its rice exports is already beginning to create shortages in some Gulf states. That is an excellent opportunity for our exporters to grab these markets to push their share,” said a commerce ministry official.

“The world is facing food shortages. Pakistan being an agriculture based economy should focus on increasing food production, export it and earn money,” Azhar said. —Nasir Jamal