THE nation may get some good news soon on the rice front. While there are still some 45 crucial days left when fresh crop would hit the market, indication of better crop are evident — area under cultivation has increased by around seven per cent and the rains have not only supplemented water but also washed away pests like leaf rollers.

Most of the farmers and traders hope that the final yield would be around six million tons as compared to 5.5 million tons last year. If that happens, marketing hiccups and price crash would become distinct possibilities, which must be pre-empted to protect its home cereal advantage.

Last year, the country gained both in quantity and value of rice export. Its exports rose by 20 per cent (1.8 million tons) and earned $1.8 billion as against $1.2 billion the previous year. There is a need to build on last year’s performance and for long-term official planning for production and marketing--- not reactive to the size of each year’s crop.

Any planning about rice marketing must include enhanced credit line for traders, ensuring on-time availability of fertiliser, pesticides etc at affordable price and water. The last one may test diplomatic and political skills of the government because of neutral expert’s decision on Baglihar Dam on Chenab. Unfortunately, the entire rice belt (basmati) fall on both sides of the River Chenab and its flows can be rigged by India. In fact, India tried to tamper with river inflows for three days before intense pressure from Pakistan to get the situation corrected.

Despite protest from farmers’ bodies, especially the Pakistan Basmati Growers Association — a directly affected by the decision — the government chose to keep quiet on the issue. Since Pakistan has no site to build dam on the Chenab, it would remain vulnerable to Indian tampering of water. It also does not have link canals to feed the Marala and Khanki Headworks (read rice belt) from the Mangla Dam in case of Indian tampering.

Thus, Pakistan must move on two-pronged policy of challenging the decision of Prof Raymond Lafitte (a Swiss national) on Baglihar, which gives India a leverage to tamper with river flow if not stop them altogether. Even tampering for a fortnight during the rice season could affect crop beyond redemption. On the second plank, Pakistan should move to build link canals to feed the area from alternative sources (Mangla Dam) in case of India playing with flow, as it did in the third week of August when the river fell to historic low of 20,000 cusecs.

Availability of fertiliser and pesticides at the crucial time has been a problem for farmers, and this year is no exception either. Rice crop needs only 12 million bags of urea this year, whereas the total Kharif production of urea stands around 35-40 million bags. But still, urea is not available at Rs1,000 per bag against officially declared price of Rs635. No wonder, the fertiliser manufacturers declared 79 per cent profits this year — all at the cost of hapless farmers, and ultimately the end-user.

The DAP fertiliser though available, was simply not within the reach of farmers, being sold at Rs3,500 per bag. The pesticides and weedcides prices have also jumped by almost 40 per cent — the calculation is that farmers would pay Rs28 billion for the same quantity of pesticides, which they bought for Rs15 billion last year. The rice crop suffers from stem borer and leaf roller pests besides weeds. The additional burden of Rs13 billion on account of pesticides would only increase domestic price further and affect exports.

Last year, the minimum export price (MEP) of $750 per ton for coarse varieties and $1,500 for basmati brought the export money home, instead of staying in foreign banks. This year, the MEP on coarse variety has been withdrawn quietly, without taking growers on board. The country exported 600,000 tons of such rice last year. This year, with the MEP gone, no one knows how much of this money would come back and how much would stay abroad. Pakistan has around three to 3.5 million tons of rice per annum to spare for export. This year, if the total yield remains around six million tons, after deducting 2.3 million tons of domestic consumption, there would be 3.7 million tons left for export.

The increase in acreage this year can be attributed to increase in price last year. There have been reports of sowing rice even in cotton belt. If the trend continues, the rice crop could be narrowing gap between itself and the biggest Kharif crop i.e. cotton. Farmers are even compromising on fodder crops for rice. This year a target of 6.4 million acres was fixed: 4.3 million acres for Punjab, 1.42 million acres for Sindh, 0.153 million acres for NWFP and 0.51 million acres for Balochistan. But, the federal government figures show that sowing has actually touched around seven million acres.

As far as yield targets were concerned, Punjab was given 3.288 million tons, Sindh 1.77 million tons, NWFP 0.129 million tons and Balochistan 0.525 million tons — a total of 5.72 million tons. The acreage shows that rice crop falls behind only cotton crop in Kharif season.

The government needs to sustain the momentum of the rice crop by removing marketing hiccups. Five factors — water, fertiliser, pesticides, marketing and pricing — are and would remain very crucial to the future prospects of the crop. The government must come up with a strategy to balance interest of all stakeholders. The rice export income, which may cross the robust figure of $2 billion this year, is too crucial for the foreign exchange-strapped Pakistan to be left to market forces alone.